According to the calculation of 30% increase, the price of iron ore in the third quarter of this year will reach 1081 yuan per ton, which is only 100 yuan lower than the current spot price of 63.5% of India.
In this regard, some ore research experts interviewed in the industry have said, "This is very likely that the miners are building momentum.
The industry believes that although the international economy is difficult to recover due to factors such as the European debt crisis, it is clear that the recovery trend has not changed significantly. Steel inventories in developed countries are still at historically low levels, and the minimum demand for steel for replenishing stocks and economic activities has driven steel production to rise.
Especially since the global financial crisis, there has been a phenomenon in the market. The ratio of international pig iron to crude steel production has risen rapidly from 70% of the normal situation to more than 75%. The contribution of crude steel is mainly from pig iron, and pig iron is mainly from China.
Obviously, "the ore tension is highly correlated with the above changes," said the above-mentioned person. Reluctantly, in recent years, international iron ore negotiations have been coupled at a time when demand is strong and oligopoly pricing. Its price is firm, and it has also formed the leading indicator of the steel market during this specific time period.
To a certain extent, this has become an established fact in the development process of China's steel industry. Yu Caibing, manager of the middle volume board department of Shanghai Jingkou Trading Co., told Modern Logistics News that the rising prices of raw materials such as iron ore will once again increase the production costs of Chinese steel companies and indirectly pass them on to steel circulation enterprises.
According to the reporter's multi-party observation, regardless of the domestic and international market conditions, it seems that there is no correlation between the steel mills.
One of the participants from WISCO, in an interview with this reporter during the coffee break, said with a puzzled face, "How can we reduce production? During this time, we are still in normal production."
In this case, with the rapid growth of pig iron production, the port iron ore stocks are at a relatively low level, and the steel mills are likely to maintain a normal production of ore stocks in a large number of digested plants. Inferred from this, in April and May 2010, the inventory of steel mills should be significantly reduced, and then will have to face high-priced iron ore. "
So, can we try to change this situation by increasing the proportion of domestic mines?
It is understood that before 2007, the replacement effect of domestic iron ore on imported ore was indeed very obvious. However, the growth trend of domestic mine production and the growth trend of imported mines have gradually become the same.
Despite the decline in the growth rate of imported mines in April this year, the growth rate of domestic mines once again showed the momentum of the year. "But this still requires a long time process." The person once again stressed that the external dependence of iron ore in 2009 has jumped by as much as 11 percentage points, almost close to 66%. In view of the current situation, only a very high ore price can stimulate the enthusiasm of mining, and it is also possible to make a change in the dependence of steel enterprises in China on the external dependence of ore.
Some experts interviewed told reporters that the three major international miners are now in a monopoly position. If other countries accept the third-quarter mineral price increase, Chinese steel mills can only continue to maintain production and not default. Passive acceptance of pricing, as for domestic steel mills to stop production or reduce production is likely to be small.
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