On May 15, Shanghai Aluminum Futures opened flat and slammed down sharply, with a slight increase across the board. Industry analysts believe that there is an adjustment need in the short term under the increasing spot pressure.
On Monday, May 15th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 0608 contract opened at 24,000 yuan and closed at 24,430 yuan, up 210 yuan. The spot price of 0605 contracts closed at 23,740 yuan, up 10 yuan.
Jin Rui Futures analyst Gao Qipeng believes that aluminum prices continue to rise and face adjustments in the short term.
The continuous increase in Lum Aluminium stocks and the improvement in the U.S. dollar trade data led to a bad news such as the rise of the US dollar, which triggered the fund's active liquidation. Lon-Aluminum fell by 85 U.S. dollars to 3,100 U.S. dollars. Domestically, it did not care about the fall in London. Due to the low price, it attracted arbitrage and trading buying to push aluminum prices higher.
As aluminum prices continued to rise, a large amount of cash began to flow into the exchange. On the 12th, Shanghai stocks increased by 13,826 tons to a high of 181,683 tons. Coupled with good domestic and foreign exchange rates, China’s exports are also accelerating. The market expects that China’s primary aluminum exports will reach 117,900 tons in April, which is a relatively high record since June 2005. At the same time, the continuous rise in the price of aluminum has also made the indicators overbought, and the speculative bulls have made a lot of profits. With the increasing spot pressure, there is a need for adjustment.
Hongye Futures Analyst Zhao Xia believes that Shanghai Aluminum has fluctuated sharply after its sharp decline, and its holdings have steadily increased its gains.
Russia's primary aluminum output from January to April was 1.223 million tons, an increase of 2.2% over the same period of 2005. According to data released by Aluminy, Russia’s output of primary aluminum from January to April was 1.223 million tons, an increase of 2.2% over the same period in 2005. The company increased its primary aluminum production from January to April by 2.3% to 912,080 tons. Another aluminum producer, Sual, provided production from 1.9% to 311,272 tons. Russia’s total aluminum output from January to April decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 1,056,000 tons.
In 2006, China's aluminum production may exceed consumption by 1 million tons. In 2006, aluminum production was about 9 million tons, and consumption was 8 million tons. Comprehensive media May 15 news, Pan Jiazhu, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, predicted on the 13th, with the increase in new production capacity of enterprises, China's aluminum production in 2006 is likely to exceed the consumption of 1 million tons.
On the evening of the 12th, Aluminium made substantial adjustments, and the close was still above the 5th line, maintaining a long position. On the 15th, the domestic main contract shook sharply in August and closed above the 5-day moving average. The rally has not changed.
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