Part II: The impact of the financial crisis on China's machine tool industry
At present, this financial crisis that has had a huge impact on the world is spreading to China's real economy. China's machine tool industry is facing a serious difficult situation, but the impact is relatively lagging behind. Since the financial crisis, machine tool enterprises have faced two major challenges. First, they have been directly affected by the international financial crisis, resulting in shrinking domestic and international markets, sharp decline in exports, decline in production and sales, sharp increase in inventories, shortage of funds, and increased competition. It is an unconventional challenge faced by enterprises; the second is that the world's scientific and technological progress and the needs of users are changing rapidly. The contradictions accumulated by the rapid development of enterprises for many years are erupting in an instant, and it is difficult to cope with them at one time and seriously unfit. This is a double challenge of adaptability and speed in business operations. Under the impact of the financial crisis, companies have to face two challenges at the same time, so they are under great test. In the survey, it was found that although the different product structure and adaptability of enterprises have great differences in the degree of impact and speed of change in the financial crisis, one thing is certain. The development of China's machine tool industry will be due to the international financial crisis. have profound impact.
1. Significant changes in market demand Since the financial crisis, China's machine tool market demand has undergone major changes: First, the market size has shrunk overall. According to relevant enterprises, the financial crisis affects the market size by more than 20%. Second, the market demand structure changes significantly, ordinary, The demand for low-end machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large-duty and high-end CNC machine tools still maintain stable demand. The demand for machine tools in various sectors of the national economy has been mixed. Some industries, such as railways, aviation, and energy, have basically not affected the demand for machine tools. The demand for machine tools in automobile manufacturing has begun to rise. Machine Tool Association's regular statistics on 177 key contact enterprises: From January to May 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tools was 53.9%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points year-on-year; the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 38.4%, including the output of CNC cutting machine tools. The decline was 23.9%, while the output value of the corresponding CNC machine tools increased by 9.4% year-on-year. It shows that the demand for ordinary machine tools has dropped drastically. Although the demand for CNC machine tools has declined, the demand for large and high-end CNC machine tools is relatively strong. From the main production enterprises in the industry: horizontal lathes, ordinary drilling machines and ordinary milling machines have reduced production by more than 30%, the proportion of small and medium-sized general-purpose grinding machines decreased by 40%, the production of low-end EDM wire-cutting machines decreased by 50%, the industry's high-end CNC machine tools and The proportion of output value of large-scale CNC machine tools has steadily increased, which generally reflects a great change in the demand structure.
2. More intense competition As market demand changes, competition is more intense. Mainly in the middle and low-end CNC machine tools and tool products, due to the shrinking market and overcapacity, coupled with the low price of Korean and Taiwanese products, the competition of domestic enterprises will further intensify. The high-end products face strong challenges from foreign companies. Due to the financial crisis, the economic downturn in developed countries, powerful multinational companies are eyeing China's huge machine tool market and adopting various means to enter the Chinese market. For high-performance functional components and CNC tool products, the impact on China's corresponding enterprises will be very serious. From January 2008 to May 2009, China's imports of metal processing machine tools reached 10.08 billion US dollars, accounting for 39% of the domestic market. The import of metal processing machine tools continues to operate at a high level, which has created great market pressure on domestic machine tool manufacturers.
3. The economic operation of the industry continued to decline According to the regular statistics of 177 key enterprises: the total industrial output value in January-May 2009 decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, the sales revenue decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the total profit decreased by 33.1%. Statistics show that since 2009, the economic operation of China's machine tool industry has continued to decline in the four seasons last year. The market has shrunk, exports have been blocked, and funds have been tight. The total industrial output value and sales revenue showed a year-on-year decline, and the total profit fell by a large margin.
According to the surveyed 114 companies (including major enterprises in the whole industry) on-site statistics, the total industrial output value decreased by 6.3% from January to April 2009, sales revenue decreased by 11.9%, and total profit decreased by 45.9%. Among them: the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decline in total industrial output accounted for 70.2% of the total number of enterprises surveyed (50% of companies with a decline of more than 20%); the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decline in sales revenue accounted for 71.1% of the total number of research enterprises (decreased by more than 20%) The number of enterprises accounted for 48.3%); the number of enterprises whose total profit decreased year-on-year accounted for 71.1% of the total number of enterprises surveyed (the number of enterprises with negative total profits accounted for 25.4%). The above data is in good agreement with the conventional statistical data of key enterprises, indicating that due to the financial crisis, the economic operation of the machine tool industry continued to decline. The business operation began to polarize. About 70% of the enterprise economic indicators were in a downward channel, and one quarter of them were in Loss status.
4. Different degree of influence of enterprises From the overall situation of the survey, the degree of influence of the financial crisis on machine tool enterprises can be roughly divided into three categories:
(1) The first type of enterprise: the degree of influence is small, and the business operation status is good. The main performance is as follows: the product structure basically adapts to the market demand, the manufacturing task is relatively full, the total industrial output value and sales revenue increase year by year, and the total profit maintains a good level. These companies account for about 30% of the total number of companies surveyed.
From the research enterprise analysis: Most of the key enterprises with large, heavy, high-grade and special CNC machine tools as the leading products, due to the high technical content of the products, in line with the current market demand, the order contract is full, the total industrial output value and sales revenue have increased greatly. The total profit is at a good level. These typical enterprises are: Jinan Second Machine Tool Group Corporation, Wuhan Heavy Machine Tool Group Corporation, Qizhong CNC Equipment Co., Ltd., Qi Er Machine Tool Group Co., Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd., Beijing No. 1 Machine Tool Plant, Ningbo Haitian Precision Industry Co., Ltd. Machinery Co., Ltd., Tianshui Forging Machine Co., Ltd., Yichang Changji Technology Co., Ltd., Taian Hualu Forging Machine Co., Ltd., etc.
At the same time, a group of new technology companies with universities, research institutes and backgrounds are operating well. A group of powerful private and private enterprises in the machine tool industry have a busy production task. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, they have shown a strong momentum of development.
(2) The second category of enterprises: Since 2009, various economic indicators have fallen across the board (with a drop of between 10% and 30%), and the impact of the financial crisis is large. As the company has made adaptive adjustments in a timely and proactive manner, the effect is relatively obvious, and the operating status can still be maintained. This type of enterprise not only produces medium and low-grade batch products, but also partially produces high-end CNC machine tools and special machine tools. The influence of enterprises in the financial crisis mainly determines which products in their leading products account for a large proportion, depending on the ability of enterprises to adjust their existing product structure to quickly adapt to the market. High-end CNC machine tools and special machine tools still maintained rapid growth when such enterprises experienced a significant decline in the production and sales of medium and low-end batch products. Due to the high quality of products, reputation and brand influence of these enterprises, they have certain competitiveness. The high-end CNC machine tools produced by them are the urgently needed products of the national development equipment manufacturing industry, which can replace some imports, so they still have recovery and development. potential.
Such companies accounted for the largest proportion of the survey, accounting for about 60% of the companies surveyed. In addition to the above-mentioned types of enterprises, most of the enterprises in China's machine tool industry belong to the second category.
(3) The third category of enterprises: Since 2009, the sales revenue has dropped drastically, the impact of the financial crisis is serious, the total profit of the enterprises has a large negative value, and the operating conditions are very difficult. The main reasons are: the company mainly produces low-grade, ordinary products, products are backward, the technology added value is low, the market shrinks, and the business operation is difficult to sustain; but some enterprises are burdened by the system mechanism, the burden of enterprises is heavy, and the productivity is difficult to play; some enterprises Due to mistakes in major investment decisions, the capital chain is out of balance.
The third category of enterprises accounted for about 10% of the total number of research enterprises. Such enterprises are in a passive adjustment situation in the midst of the financial crisis.
In addition, the research team also learned about some foreign-funded and Taiwan-funded enterprises. The overall situation is that these enterprises have been affected by the financial crisis to varying degrees. Most of the enterprises' sales have dropped by about 20%, and individual enterprises have remained flat or slightly increased.
5. Declining product exports With the spread of the financial crisis, it has caused a serious impact on the export of machine tool products in China. According to statistics, from January to May 2009, the export of machine tools in the whole industry fell by 35.9% year-on-year. Among them, a group of export-oriented enterprises, the export value in January-May 2009 decreased by 50%~90% year-on-year, and the situation is quite serious. The overall situation is: First, the market demand in North America, Europe and Japan, which accounts for 40% of China’s exports, has shrunk dramatically, resulting in a serious decline in exports; secondly, due to changes in exchange rates, rising raw materials and labor costs, and increased difficulty in financing. To reduce the export profits of ordinary machine tools and low-grade tools, some export products have fallen into losses; third, trade protectionism has risen. The influx of overseas products has been intensified, and the difficulty of domestic products entering the foreign market has increased.
According to relevant research enterprises, developed countries have increased their efforts to review the export of high-tech machine tools in China, prohibiting the export of high-end machine tools and corresponding CNC systems such as five-axis linkage to China; and at the same time, for the CNC machines with universal grades, they will enter the competition. Recently, the exchange rate between the won and the Taiwan dollar has been depreciated, and their products can be sold at a large price. The impact on the domestic market is growing. The research company called on the government to pay attention to the dumping tendency of overseas machine tools and the possible impact of the future 10+3 agreement, and strive for a fair development environment for the domestic machine tool industry. (to be continued)
At present, this financial crisis that has had a huge impact on the world is spreading to China's real economy. China's machine tool industry is facing a serious difficult situation, but the impact is relatively lagging behind. Since the financial crisis, machine tool enterprises have faced two major challenges. First, they have been directly affected by the international financial crisis, resulting in shrinking domestic and international markets, sharp decline in exports, decline in production and sales, sharp increase in inventories, shortage of funds, and increased competition. It is an unconventional challenge faced by enterprises; the second is that the world's scientific and technological progress and the needs of users are changing rapidly. The contradictions accumulated by the rapid development of enterprises for many years are erupting in an instant, and it is difficult to cope with them at one time and seriously unfit. This is a double challenge of adaptability and speed in business operations. Under the impact of the financial crisis, companies have to face two challenges at the same time, so they are under great test. In the survey, it was found that although the different product structure and adaptability of enterprises have great differences in the degree of impact and speed of change in the financial crisis, one thing is certain. The development of China's machine tool industry will be due to the international financial crisis. have profound impact.
1. Significant changes in market demand Since the financial crisis, China's machine tool market demand has undergone major changes: First, the market size has shrunk overall. According to relevant enterprises, the financial crisis affects the market size by more than 20%. Second, the market demand structure changes significantly, ordinary, The demand for low-end machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large-duty and high-end CNC machine tools still maintain stable demand. The demand for machine tools in various sectors of the national economy has been mixed. Some industries, such as railways, aviation, and energy, have basically not affected the demand for machine tools. The demand for machine tools in automobile manufacturing has begun to rise. Machine Tool Association's regular statistics on 177 key contact enterprises: From January to May 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tools was 53.9%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points year-on-year; the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 38.4%, including the output of CNC cutting machine tools. The decline was 23.9%, while the output value of the corresponding CNC machine tools increased by 9.4% year-on-year. It shows that the demand for ordinary machine tools has dropped drastically. Although the demand for CNC machine tools has declined, the demand for large and high-end CNC machine tools is relatively strong. From the main production enterprises in the industry: horizontal lathes, ordinary drilling machines and ordinary milling machines have reduced production by more than 30%, the proportion of small and medium-sized general-purpose grinding machines decreased by 40%, the production of low-end EDM wire-cutting machines decreased by 50%, the industry's high-end CNC machine tools and The proportion of output value of large-scale CNC machine tools has steadily increased, which generally reflects a great change in the demand structure.
2. More intense competition As market demand changes, competition is more intense. Mainly in the middle and low-end CNC machine tools and tool products, due to the shrinking market and overcapacity, coupled with the low price of Korean and Taiwanese products, the competition of domestic enterprises will further intensify. The high-end products face strong challenges from foreign companies. Due to the financial crisis, the economic downturn in developed countries, powerful multinational companies are eyeing China's huge machine tool market and adopting various means to enter the Chinese market. For high-performance functional components and CNC tool products, the impact on China's corresponding enterprises will be very serious. From January 2008 to May 2009, China's imports of metal processing machine tools reached 10.08 billion US dollars, accounting for 39% of the domestic market. The import of metal processing machine tools continues to operate at a high level, which has created great market pressure on domestic machine tool manufacturers.
3. The economic operation of the industry continued to decline According to the regular statistics of 177 key enterprises: the total industrial output value in January-May 2009 decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, the sales revenue decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the total profit decreased by 33.1%. Statistics show that since 2009, the economic operation of China's machine tool industry has continued to decline in the four seasons last year. The market has shrunk, exports have been blocked, and funds have been tight. The total industrial output value and sales revenue showed a year-on-year decline, and the total profit fell by a large margin.
According to the surveyed 114 companies (including major enterprises in the whole industry) on-site statistics, the total industrial output value decreased by 6.3% from January to April 2009, sales revenue decreased by 11.9%, and total profit decreased by 45.9%. Among them: the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decline in total industrial output accounted for 70.2% of the total number of enterprises surveyed (50% of companies with a decline of more than 20%); the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decline in sales revenue accounted for 71.1% of the total number of research enterprises (decreased by more than 20%) The number of enterprises accounted for 48.3%); the number of enterprises whose total profit decreased year-on-year accounted for 71.1% of the total number of enterprises surveyed (the number of enterprises with negative total profits accounted for 25.4%). The above data is in good agreement with the conventional statistical data of key enterprises, indicating that due to the financial crisis, the economic operation of the machine tool industry continued to decline. The business operation began to polarize. About 70% of the enterprise economic indicators were in a downward channel, and one quarter of them were in Loss status.
4. Different degree of influence of enterprises From the overall situation of the survey, the degree of influence of the financial crisis on machine tool enterprises can be roughly divided into three categories:
(1) The first type of enterprise: the degree of influence is small, and the business operation status is good. The main performance is as follows: the product structure basically adapts to the market demand, the manufacturing task is relatively full, the total industrial output value and sales revenue increase year by year, and the total profit maintains a good level. These companies account for about 30% of the total number of companies surveyed.
From the research enterprise analysis: Most of the key enterprises with large, heavy, high-grade and special CNC machine tools as the leading products, due to the high technical content of the products, in line with the current market demand, the order contract is full, the total industrial output value and sales revenue have increased greatly. The total profit is at a good level. These typical enterprises are: Jinan Second Machine Tool Group Corporation, Wuhan Heavy Machine Tool Group Corporation, Qizhong CNC Equipment Co., Ltd., Qi Er Machine Tool Group Co., Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd., Beijing No. 1 Machine Tool Plant, Ningbo Haitian Precision Industry Co., Ltd. Machinery Co., Ltd., Tianshui Forging Machine Co., Ltd., Yichang Changji Technology Co., Ltd., Taian Hualu Forging Machine Co., Ltd., etc.
At the same time, a group of new technology companies with universities, research institutes and backgrounds are operating well. A group of powerful private and private enterprises in the machine tool industry have a busy production task. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, they have shown a strong momentum of development.
(2) The second category of enterprises: Since 2009, various economic indicators have fallen across the board (with a drop of between 10% and 30%), and the impact of the financial crisis is large. As the company has made adaptive adjustments in a timely and proactive manner, the effect is relatively obvious, and the operating status can still be maintained. This type of enterprise not only produces medium and low-grade batch products, but also partially produces high-end CNC machine tools and special machine tools. The influence of enterprises in the financial crisis mainly determines which products in their leading products account for a large proportion, depending on the ability of enterprises to adjust their existing product structure to quickly adapt to the market. High-end CNC machine tools and special machine tools still maintained rapid growth when such enterprises experienced a significant decline in the production and sales of medium and low-end batch products. Due to the high quality of products, reputation and brand influence of these enterprises, they have certain competitiveness. The high-end CNC machine tools produced by them are the urgently needed products of the national development equipment manufacturing industry, which can replace some imports, so they still have recovery and development. potential.
Such companies accounted for the largest proportion of the survey, accounting for about 60% of the companies surveyed. In addition to the above-mentioned types of enterprises, most of the enterprises in China's machine tool industry belong to the second category.
(3) The third category of enterprises: Since 2009, the sales revenue has dropped drastically, the impact of the financial crisis is serious, the total profit of the enterprises has a large negative value, and the operating conditions are very difficult. The main reasons are: the company mainly produces low-grade, ordinary products, products are backward, the technology added value is low, the market shrinks, and the business operation is difficult to sustain; but some enterprises are burdened by the system mechanism, the burden of enterprises is heavy, and the productivity is difficult to play; some enterprises Due to mistakes in major investment decisions, the capital chain is out of balance.
The third category of enterprises accounted for about 10% of the total number of research enterprises. Such enterprises are in a passive adjustment situation in the midst of the financial crisis.
In addition, the research team also learned about some foreign-funded and Taiwan-funded enterprises. The overall situation is that these enterprises have been affected by the financial crisis to varying degrees. Most of the enterprises' sales have dropped by about 20%, and individual enterprises have remained flat or slightly increased.
5. Declining product exports With the spread of the financial crisis, it has caused a serious impact on the export of machine tool products in China. According to statistics, from January to May 2009, the export of machine tools in the whole industry fell by 35.9% year-on-year. Among them, a group of export-oriented enterprises, the export value in January-May 2009 decreased by 50%~90% year-on-year, and the situation is quite serious. The overall situation is: First, the market demand in North America, Europe and Japan, which accounts for 40% of China’s exports, has shrunk dramatically, resulting in a serious decline in exports; secondly, due to changes in exchange rates, rising raw materials and labor costs, and increased difficulty in financing. To reduce the export profits of ordinary machine tools and low-grade tools, some export products have fallen into losses; third, trade protectionism has risen. The influx of overseas products has been intensified, and the difficulty of domestic products entering the foreign market has increased.
According to relevant research enterprises, developed countries have increased their efforts to review the export of high-tech machine tools in China, prohibiting the export of high-end machine tools and corresponding CNC systems such as five-axis linkage to China; and at the same time, for the CNC machines with universal grades, they will enter the competition. Recently, the exchange rate between the won and the Taiwan dollar has been depreciated, and their products can be sold at a large price. The impact on the domestic market is growing. The research company called on the government to pay attention to the dumping tendency of overseas machine tools and the possible impact of the future 10+3 agreement, and strive for a fair development environment for the domestic machine tool industry. (to be continued)
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