The industry has reservations about the issue that China will greatly reduce the tariffs on imported automobiles. However, the capital market was overreacted, and China's listing in Hong Kong fell sharply. The auto brands of SAIC Group (600104) and GAC Group also fell sharply. Will the tariffs on imported automobiles really fall sharply, and what impact will it have on the Chinese auto industry?
To understand these issues, we must first look at the actual tariffs on imported cars in China. According to the information of the General Administration of Customs, at present, an imported car in China has to pay three kinds of taxes. The first is tariff 25%, the second is 17% VAT, the third is consumption tax 1%-40%, and the mainstream displacement is 2.0. For example, an imported car of about 3.0 has an average consumption tax rate of about 10%. That is to say, an imported car, in addition to bare car prices and freight storage costs, plus a tax of about 50%, of course, the tariff is a big head, probably accounted for half. Therefore, the actual situation we have seen is that an imported car is basically double the price of overseas. The larger the displacement, the bigger the difference.
So, how much will the tariff be reduced? The United States is known as the "country on the wheel", and its current import tariff on automobiles is 2.5%. This is because the US automobile industry is too strong. Since the first Ford T-car in 1908, the US automobile manufacturing industry has been It has a history of more than 100 years. The United States is not only the country with the largest number of cars, but its automobile production capacity is also extremely large. The annual output value is about 400 billion US dollars. This value is the sum of traditional automobile production countries such as Germany, France, Britain and Italy. Therefore, the United States does not need much high import tariffs and has strong industrial competitiveness. In contrast, the EU, its import vehicle tariffs are much higher than the United States, reaching 10%. Even in Europe, these traditional automobile production powers have to be set at 10%, and how much can China drop? The optimistic estimate may eventually fall to 15%, and it is not necessarily one step.
Secondly, we need to have a clear understanding that if China reduces the import tariffs on automobiles, it may not be the United States. why? China imported 1.216 million cars in 2017. The only top ten Lincoln companies are American car companies. They can only be ranked seventh. The top three are BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. Therefore, even if China reduces the import tariffs on automobiles, it may not be the United States. Only this kind of tariff level decline, there will be an inclusive system, the import of European luxury cars will increase significantly, such as BBA (BMW Mercedes-Benz Audi), which will have a greater impact on the Chinese auto industry.
However, even if the tariff is lowered, the price of imported cars may not drop significantly. Why? As mentioned earlier, the price of imported cars is not only tariffs, but also VAT and consumption tax. Therefore, everyone can calculate that if the import price of the imported car after the tax is about 500,000, the tariff will drop to 15%, but it is only a few tens of thousands of dollars. Other taxes and fees are still there. It is only necessary to note that in 2017, China's imported cars increased by 16.8%, while domestic car sales only increased by 2.1%. That is to say, in the case of increasing consumer consumption, more attention is paid to the consumption quality of automobiles. A little, but the quality is better, so it sells better. From this point of view, it is also appropriate to moderately reduce the tariffs on automobiles to stimulate domestic car companies. The car companies that can sell for a decade by constantly changing the appearance of the skin can not be aggressive. Domestic joint-venture vehicles will speed up the replacement and launch new products simultaneously to stabilize the impact of imported cars, but the newly listed products may not be very cheap.
Therefore, from a holistic perspective, the impact of lower tariffs on imported cars on the entire domestic automobile consumption market is far less exaggerated than everyone thinks. This kind of impact is more conceptualized and implemented in the final consumer market. The price may not fall as expected. Obvious. The automobile industry is a symbol of the national industrial level. It involves all aspects. We need to appropriately reduce tariffs to introduce live water, but the ultimate goal is to make China's automobile industry develop faster and better, rather than simply letting cheap cars come in to hit the market.
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