In 2018, it was so hurried, with the photovoltaic installed capacity and the high subsidy gap in 2017, with the continuous expansion of production scale and the continuous decline of profits, with the ambiguity of the future and the problems hanging in the heart. : How will PV 2018 develop? In this regard, the author tries to analyze and judge from the external situation such as funds, policies, and user characteristics.
First of all, the author believes that it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of investment in funds. From an international perspective, the US interest rate hikes, contract reductions, tax cuts and other measures, in the case of China's photovoltaic manufacturing and power generation industry investment yields are gradually lower, a high probability of triggering funds or assets invested in the photovoltaic industry, Transferring abroad through various channels and various means may even begin to happen. Domestically, the state's emphasis on financial risks has already been mentioned at a very high level. In 2018, it will continue to exert its strength to control leverage and stabilize credit. Under the joint influence of the international and domestic environment, the increase in the cost of using funds is inevitable. The development of photovoltaic power generation and manufacturing is based on continuous investment of funds, but the investment leverage of photovoltaic power generation is not low. Guaranteed by the big company or the parent company, paying the land prepayment to get the land use right, taking the land use right mortgage loan and paying the advance payment of the photovoltaic equipment, and then taking the prepayment of the equipment mortgage loan to the power station construction fee, after the completion of the construction It is not a rare game to use the photovoltaic power station to pay the previous arrears. In addition, foreign capital's hot money and funds in the capital market are invested in the photovoltaic power generation and manufacturing industries, and I have heard it. The investment of these funds will be affected by the cost of capital use, and even affect the development of the entire industry chain of the photovoltaic industry.
Secondly, the author believes that the photovoltaic industry needs a deeper understanding of national policy needs. The state’s support for new energy cannot be understood as an endless resource tilt. The latest series of policies have been able to judge the country's policy ideas: that is, not to pursue absolute low electricity prices, to stabilize the revenue expectations of photovoltaic power generation, but actively and steadily withdraw subsidies for photovoltaic power generation. Specifically, 2020 is a key time node. At this time node, the power generation is fully connected to the Internet, and the electricity price subsidy is zero or close to zero. The market allocation of electricity price is realized through the quota system or the electricity trading market. Similarly, for photovoltaic power plants that have been built but are in arrears, 2020 can also be seen as the beginning of problem solving. In terms of seeking truth from facts, the photovoltaic industry can no longer demand more from this arrangement. Therefore, 2018 is a crucial year. The trend of photovoltaic power generation itself can match the trend of national policies and determine the future trend of the photovoltaic market. If the answer is yes, China's PV industry is bound to flourish in the world, and China's PV products will surely become the world's passport to the future. Others, photovoltaic poverty alleviation is the main battlefield in 2018, or the future of distributed leading photovoltaics, I think it is only a small problem in tactics.
Third, it is necessary to prevent the negative evaluation of photovoltaics from suddenly appearing and form a news hotspot. The photovoltaic industry chain has been relatively closed in the past, with relatively concentrated users and limited distribution. After the expansion of the distributed PV market, it means that the market has become an open market, and the user group has expanded rapidly and its composition has become more diversified. At the same time, distributed PV is based on its investment properties as a selling point. The user's appeal is single and very sensitive, and it is easy to form resonance and chain reaction. Due to the characteristics of the distributed market, there are a large number of PV products installed and used in the early market stocks. The PV industry has actually realized and is taking measures to correct this problem, but the measures are determined and the final results are achieved. It also takes time to verify. Based on the above situation, during this time, it is possible to suddenly form a news hotspot. This hot spot may be concentrated in a certain enterprise, but for existing users and potential users, it may be enlarged to the entire photovoltaic industry. The emergence of hotspots may even have an impact on the direction of the policy. Therefore, the author suggests that all enterprises should clean up the front of the door, organize the user files in 2018, organize personnel to conduct necessary user return visits and inspections, and do a good job of personal injury or property damage accidents, just in case.
In short, the author believes that the photovoltaic industry in 2018 will usher in the most complicated situation in the past five years, including the impact of the industrial cycle superposition that the author did not mention, the impact of new technological progress and the impact of changes in the international market environment. However, the author believes that the full assessment of risk and early preparation will enable the photovoltaic industry to develop better, and the photovoltaic industry will certainly be better developed. (The author is the chief engineer of Abangdi Energy Co., Ltd.)
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