The reporter learned from the website of the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission that in order to consolidate the production capacity and improve the effective supply of steel, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Promotion of the implementation of the policy of promoting the pressure on the steel market. Pass...
The reporter learned from the website of the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission that in order to consolidate the production capacity and improve the effective supply of steel, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Ministry of Further Implementation of the Policy of Promoting Pressure and Pressure to Promote the Balanced Operation of the Steel Market. The Notice stated that under the efforts of many parties, the steel prices have recovered and the production and sales of steel enterprises have improved. However, there has recently been a problem of a rapid increase in the price of steel spot and futures markets in the short term. The "Notice" pointed out that the recovery of steel prices in the previous period indicates that China's steel industry has a certain degree of improvement in the overcapacity of the steel industry. However, it should be noted that the problem of oversupply in China's steel industry has not yet been fundamentally resolved, and comprehensive analysis of China's economic development trends, The steel industry's excess demand is still prominent due to factors such as steel consumption demand and steel companies' supply capacity.
Therefore, the Notice states that it will actively support legitimate compliance companies to strengthen effective supply. Guide enterprises to organize production according to market demand, and continuously improve the quality and level of effective supply of steel products, especially construction steel. Steel companies are encouraged to sign long-term contracts with steel companies such as upstream coal, downstream automobiles, home appliances, and construction to establish a stable and honest cooperative relationship.
For large steel enterprises, the "Notice" requires that we should continue to play a leading role, starting from the interests of the whole industry, scientifically formulating the ex-factory price of steel, actively guiding the price in a reasonable range, and playing the role of "wind vane" and "stabilizer".
In this regard, some analysts pointed out that since 2017, steel prices have continued to rise, and the price of steel spot futures market after the Spring Festival has jumped sharply, and bullish expectations are strong. However, the fundamentals have not changed from the demand side. Therefore, the relevant government departments are worried about repeating the overwhelming coal price, so as to issue a document to stabilize the market.
The above-mentioned analysts said that the recent price increase has been too fast and too strong, and has deviated from the support of the fundamentals. Therefore, on the one hand, the policy is to continue the production of steel, and on the other hand, it is necessary to prevent the market from relying on excessive production of speculative steel prices. Economic operations have an adverse impact.
An insider who is engaged in steel introduced that since the Spring Festival, steel prices have soared. In less than half a month, only rebar increased by nearly 10%.
According to WIND data, the largest steel rebar in steel, as of February 15, SHFE rebar closed at 3391 yuan / ton, although it did not reach the highest point set in December 2016, but on February 3, that is, the Spring Festival The first day after the closing price of 3113 yuan / ton, up 8.93%. Compared with the closing price of 2,851 yuan/ton on January 3, the first working day of 2017, the increase rate is as high as 18.94%. Hot rolls are similar. Data show that as of February 15, the hot coil index closed at 3,671.48 yuan / ton, up 8.63% from 3,379.78 yuan / ton on February 3, up 11.06% from 3,305.85 yuan / ton on January 3.
The above-mentioned people believe that the reason for this skyrocketing steel price is mainly due to the use of financial capital to produce capacity.
“In fact, people in the industry know that steel inventories are still huge.†The above-mentioned people said that the steel mills are now floating on the books and have not been honored. After the capital is fired up, it will wait for the downstream to take over the bar. If the downstream is difficult to support, it will be too late to sell. At the same time, the recent increase in the phenomenon of goods smuggling by trade circulators has also contributed to the rise in steel prices.
For the fundamentals of demand, the support capacity is limited. The aforementioned people said that in fact, after the Spring Festival, steel inventories rose rapidly. Now the inventory level has reached the inventory level in 2015, and there is still a further upward trend. This is not too much. Good signal.
According to the data of major steel inventories in China's steel network, as of the week of February 10, the total national steel inventories totaled 15.78 million tons, an increase of 2,303,900 tons from the previous week, an increase of 17.06%; an increase of 5,755,800 tons from the previous month. , an increase of up to 54%. Among them, the national rebar inventory was 8,209,600 tons, an increase of 1,234,400 tons compared with last week. Compared with the end of last month, the inventory increased by a total of 3,096,400 tons. In terms of wire rods, the inventory was 2.47 million tons. Compared with last week, the inventory increased by 467,300 tons, an increase of 1,174,800 tons from the previous month.
In addition, the steel inventories released by China Steel Association in January showed that the social inventory of five major categories of steel products in 20 cities nationwide had a downward trend for three consecutive months, and it has rebounded. Among them, rebar stocks were 3.78 million tons, an increase of 532,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 16.4%.
Huatai Futures Analysis said that during the Spring Festival, the steel enterprises started to maintain a small increase and the optimism of traders, resulting in the accumulation of steel products in the middle reaches. Last week, steel social inventories increased by 2.3 million tons to 15.78 million tons, which is not only higher than the 2016 stock level, but also only 200,000 tons lower than the 2015 stock high.
Huatai Futures expects that with the steady increase in steel production and the continuation of demand in the off-season, the high steel inventories in 2017 will exceed 17 million to 18 million tons, reaching a new high in inventory levels in the past three years.
In addition, it is worth noting that while steel prices have risen, iron ore has also risen, and “real profits have been stolen by iron ore,†said the source.
Data show that as of the 15th, iron ore futures closed at 696 yuan / ton, up 27% from 548 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year.
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