The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and demand has weakened. One of the important aspects of economic work in 2019 is to stabilize aggregate demand. Consumption has become the main driving force for China's economic growth. In 2018, consumption growth has slowed down, so stabilizing consumer demand has become the key. In order to expand domestic consumption demand, measures will be taken to stabilize the consumption of hot products such as automobiles and home appliances, and to improve housing leasing, housekeeping services, pensions, and supporting policies for child care. As an important industry for China's commodity consumption, automobiles and home appliances are currently in a downturn. They will formulate policies to encourage and encourage policies. The capital market has responded strongly, and the two sectors of A-shares have risen sharply. At present, the industry generally expects that the policy may exert its efforts in tax reduction, rural market development, consumption upgrading, and financial subsidies. (Zhang Xing)
In the case of a persistent downturn in the auto market, the industry has long had the proposal to “explore the rural marketâ€. On the one hand, the barriers to licensing and restrictions in large cities have limited room for growth in the first-line market. On the other hand, there is a need to use commercial vehicles as production tools in rural markets. Farmers are also expected to form a “relay†for passenger cars after they become rich. .
Haikou, Beijing report
As an important industry for domestic consumption, automobiles have become an important part of a strong market and ensuring that the economy operates in a reasonable range.
Recently, Ning Jiwei, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview that this year will formulate measures to stabilize the consumption of hot products such as automobiles and home appliances. He believes that although the annual sales of automobiles is close to the scale of 30 million vehicles, it still has great potential.
The important background for stimulating automobile consumption is that in the industry where sales account for more than a quarter of the total retail sales of consumer goods in China, cars will encounter the market “Waterloo†in 2018. In encouraging car consumption, Ning Jiwei revealed new ideas: “Supporting residents' reasonable consumption, green consumption, and upgrading consumption. Cars have entered the countryside from cities, and now they are also considering formulating relevant policies to encourage farmers' consumption.â€
At the previous policy level, there was indeed a saying that “the car went to the countrysideâ€. From 2009 to 2010, the country has given financial subsidies to the rural market for the purchase of micro-cars and tool-type cars. This policy is not only the need to achieve the goal of benefiting farmers and strong agriculture, but also an important measure to stimulate consumption to drive production. According to Ningji’s statement, the “car to the countryside†policy will be restarted.
In fact, in the case of the continued downturn in the auto market, the industry has long had the proposal to “explore the rural marketâ€. On the one hand, the barriers to licensing and restrictions in large cities have limited room for growth in the first-line market. On the other hand, there is a need to use commercial vehicles as production tools in rural markets. Farmers are also expected to form a “relay†for passenger cars after they become rich. .
Is the rural market really a “new blue sea†in the automobile market? In what ways will the policy promote “cars going to the countryside� These issues are still controversial. On January 9, some people in the auto industry told the 21st Century Business Herald that subsidies to the rural market will further increase fiscal pressure; the rural auto market is small or small, and it really needs to stimulate the auto market. Together.
However, after the news that the new policy of car consumption will be introduced this year, on January 9, auto stocks collectively rose. At the close, the A-share auto sector rose 1.6%, and Great Wall Motor, Jinbei Auto, Haima Auto, Zotye and other 9-day daily limit, Hong Kong stocks Geely Automobile also rose 8.22%.
The car market enters the down channel
Since the second half of 2018, the Chinese auto market has entered the downtrend channel and continues to slump.
At present, the China Automobile Association has not released the annual car sales data. However, the passenger car data released by the Federation on January 9th shows that the wholesale volume of narrow-sense passenger cars in the whole year of 2018 totaled 23.237 million, down 4%, reflecting the terminal. The retail volume of the market has dropped by 5.8% to 22.351 million units, both of which are lower than 2015. In 2018, the sales volume of general passenger vehicles was 22.72 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%.
From the monthly data, the Chinese passenger car market is not optimistic. From June to December 2018, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars, which were counted by the Association, fell by 3.1%, 5.9%, 7.4%, 13.2%, 13.2%, 17.9% and 19.2%, respectively, in the case of overall sales decline. The decline in passenger cars is still expanding further.
Data at the enterprise level confirms this trend. Recently, some listed car companies announced the production and sales data in December last year, the performance is regrettable. Take Geely Automobile as an example. It sold 93,300 units in December last year, a 39% decrease from the same period last year and a 34% decrease from the previous month. Although Geely's annual sales increased by 20% to 1.5 million units, it did not complete the annual sales target of 1.58 million units. In addition, Geely is still not optimistic about this year's market. The target is only equal to the sales in 2018. The company was once again subject to capital. The bearishness of the market.
And car consumption is crucial to the overall macroeconomic pull. Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics released the statistics of November 2018. The total retail sales of social consumer goods fell by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to factors such as the decline in automobile products and the decline in the growth rate of petroleum products.
“Auto consumption is the first negative growth in the past 30 years. This is the biggest change in 2018. Last year, automobile consumption, especially in the second half of the year, showed negative growth, and its proportion decreased in the whole society, which led to the overall decline in 2018. Consumption.†Ren Xingzhou, a researcher and former director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that this is the main reason why Ning Jiwei, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed to use the policy to boost the auto market.
Force the rural market
In terms of policies to promote automobile consumption, Ning Jizhen revealed that he is considering formulating relevant policies to encourage farmers to consume. He pointed out that cars have entered the countryside from the city, and the domestic auto market still has great potential.
The industry believes that the automotive industry has changed from an incremental market to a more intense stock market. In comparison, the rural market has greater potential. “It’s difficult to limit emissions and get on the cards in big cities. These are the factors that prevent automobile consumption. Only in rural areas, third- and fourth-tier cities have room to further increase sales of automobiles.†An auto industry insider told reporters.
On the other hand, he also believes that this is an obvious support for independent brand car companies. “The formulation of policies is related to the big plates and the performance of the leading companies.†He pointed out that if the rural market achieves significant development, the independent brands will benefit significantly.
It is worth noting that while sales have fallen, Chinese cars have also undergone structural adjustments. In the downturn of the overall environment, independent brands like Geely are undergoing greater tests. Data show that luxury car retail sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year in December 2018, mainstream joint-venture brand retail sales decreased by 17%, and self-owned brand retail sales fell by 26%.
In fact, opening up the rural market has always been an important measure recommended by the industry to boost sales. Shen Jinjun, president of the Automobile Circulation Association, said to reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald, "Let the vast number of Chinese peasant brothers buy commercial vehicles as production tools to achieve wealth, and improve their living standards and return to the passenger vehicle market to become a sustainable purchasing power."
There are precedents for incentives for rural markets. The "Regulations for the Revitalization of the Automobile Industry" promulgated by the State Council in January 2009 has proposed a policy of benefiting farmers, that is, from March 1 to December 31, 2009, for the purchase of mini-buses with a displacement of 1.3 liters or less, and three If a wheeled car or a low-speed truck is scrapped for a light-duty truck, a one-time financial subsidy will be given. Later, the policy was extended for one year.
However, in the eyes of the industry, the implementation of the “car to the countryside†policy was limited. Although the national automobile sales in 2009 achieved an explosive growth of 46.15% and became the world's No. 1 automobile production and sales country, the more reason is that the vehicle purchase tax is levied at 5% on passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6L or less. Preferential policies. For farmers, whether it is a light truck or a micro car, demand and purchasing power are quite limited.
On January 9, Zhang Junyi, a managing partner of Weilai Capital, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the previous “car to the countryside†policy was more to stimulate the “old-for-new†market, but this year’s policy will be more targeted, instead of In addition, the inclusive type, from the perspective of the direction, production tools and new energy will be the policy direction.
He believes that specific measures may reflect tax incentives and may introduce some practical measures. “The rural auto market is not a license issue, so the actual tax benefits will be effective.â€
However, he is not optimistic about upgrading rural production tools to boost the auto market. “Because not all farmers will use cars as production tools, commercial vehicles will stimulate more, its total plate is here, and commercial vehicles have a long way to go to replace agricultural vehicles. The policy should be more from stimulating passenger cars. From the perspective of consumption."
Supporting policy is the key
In the view of many industry insiders and experts, it is far from enough to boost the auto market by relying on the rural market as a whole. More supporting policies should be formulated to improve as a whole.
Zhang Junyi believes that outside the rural market, second-hand car recycling should be encouraged to increase the demand for new cars by accelerating the exit of old models. In addition, targeted credit support measures can be added to SMEs, which indirectly stimulates some car purchases.
Ren Xingzhou also told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that in addition to targeting specific areas such as the rural market, it is also possible to introduce policies for specific products such as small-displacement vehicles. “Promoting automobile consumption is mainly about the perspective of benefiting the people and the people.†Ren Xingzhou pointed out that “the preferential policy of further promoting the purchase tax is also an option.â€
It should be pointed out that before the industry had widely hoped to reduce or cancel the vehicle purchase tax, but at the end of 2018, the vehicle purchase tax was levied at the 10% tax rate and has been clearly written in the "People's Republic of China Vehicle Purchase Tax Law." The only exception to this rule is the new energy vehicle, which is exempt from vehicle purchase tax on new energy vehicles selected for the relevant catalogue during the period 2018-2020, according to a notice issued by the relevant ministry.
New energy vehicles are the development direction of the future automotive industry. In 2019, the “double points†policy officially began to be assessed. The promulgation and implementation of this policy means that traditional car companies are required to reduce fuel consumption and increase the production and sales of new energy vehicles. In the medium and long term, new energy vehicles will become an important "engine" in the domestic automotive market.
After the National Development and Reform Commission expressed its position to promote automobile consumption, many insiders began to look forward to the "differential" purchase tax concessions. However, in order to prevent overdraft consumption, they suggested implementing long-term preferential policies. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, once said that the auto market welcomes long-term effective incentive policies. For example, if the purchase tax is halved, the policy will be maintained, but it is best not to issue short-term stimulus policies that may cause market volatility.
Zhang Junyi emphasized that subsidies are not an inclusive policy. The implementation method and implementation intensity are very important. After the subsidy is completed, they often face the problem of “cheat compensationâ€, so they need to be more detailed in the implementation process. "Subsidy is a drip-filling practice. Drip irrigation requires precision. Don't make up for it. Since starting from the countryside and starting from the third- and fourth-tier markets, you need to really implement the benefits to these places."
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