The company is one of the two largest companies in the industry. Its products include diamonds, composite sheets, pre-alloyed powders and tool products, forming a complete industrial chain from upstream to downstream. The company's technology reserves are very comprehensive and have the technical potential to develop in all aspects of the industry chain. This will help to expand the expectations of the company's future growth space and enhance the company's valuation.
Diamond products mainly look at the industry's unexpected price hike factors: Due to the trend of reshuffle of the international financial crisis and the large-scale equipment, the diamond industry has achieved oligopoly. We expect the top three in 2011 to account for more than 65% of the national output. At the same time, diamond is the latest generation of super-hard materials, and the replacement of traditional SiC and cemented carbide is more and more extensive, and the demand has a compound growth of about 30%. Following the price increase in the second half of 2010, the industry is expected to continue to raise prices in 2011.
Because the company's current production capacity has accounted for 20 to 30% of the entire industry. We expect that it is difficult to exceed the growth rate of the industry in terms of production. Otherwise, it is possible to bear excessive business risks when the diamond boom is fluctuating. We make assumptions about the company's diamond production below the industry growth rate.
An optimistic estimate of the prealloyed powder project: the company's non-public issuance of funds to the pre-alloy powder and composite film two projects. Among them, the pre-alloy powder has already had a sales scale of 20 to 50 million yuan in the previous two years, and the development of this product is based. At the same time, the downstream customers of this product and diamond products basically overlap, and the sales channels also have advantages. Therefore, we have made an "optimistic" assumption of 80% in 2012 and 100% in 2013.
The composite film is expected to have a large room for upward adjustment in the future: the low-to-high grades of the composite sheets are mine pieces, oil sheets and blades. At present, the company cuts in from the lowest-end mine piece. We believe that it is not difficult for the company to increase its volume in the low-end market. It also makes the “optimistic†assumption of 80% in 2012. It is expected that the company's future development towards high-end products is a certain direction. However, it is difficult to estimate quantitatively for the time being, and the assumptions that are not included in the profit forecast are likely to exceed the expected factors in the future.
Earnings Expectations and Valuation: The EPS for 2011~2012 is expected to be 0.44 and 0.80 yuan (Figure 1~2). Corresponding to the closing price of 16.84 yuan on May 26, PE was 38.3 and 21.1 times respectively. Relative to the small and medium-sized board, the GEM average of 22.9 and 20.4 times PE in 2012, the valuation is basically reasonable, and the “recommended†rating is given for the first time. The profit forecast includes the price increase of diamonds, as well as the “optimistic†expectation that composite sheets and prealloyed powders will reach 80% in 2012; there is no expectation of upgrading the composite sheet products and developing products such as diamond products. In the future, there may be more than expected factors in product development, and there may be lower than expected in the price increase of diamonds and the progress of new projects.
Risk warning: The price increase of diamond products may not be realized due to the increase in output of small enterprises.
Diamond products mainly look at the industry's unexpected price hike factors: Due to the trend of reshuffle of the international financial crisis and the large-scale equipment, the diamond industry has achieved oligopoly. We expect the top three in 2011 to account for more than 65% of the national output. At the same time, diamond is the latest generation of super-hard materials, and the replacement of traditional SiC and cemented carbide is more and more extensive, and the demand has a compound growth of about 30%. Following the price increase in the second half of 2010, the industry is expected to continue to raise prices in 2011.
Because the company's current production capacity has accounted for 20 to 30% of the entire industry. We expect that it is difficult to exceed the growth rate of the industry in terms of production. Otherwise, it is possible to bear excessive business risks when the diamond boom is fluctuating. We make assumptions about the company's diamond production below the industry growth rate.
An optimistic estimate of the prealloyed powder project: the company's non-public issuance of funds to the pre-alloy powder and composite film two projects. Among them, the pre-alloy powder has already had a sales scale of 20 to 50 million yuan in the previous two years, and the development of this product is based. At the same time, the downstream customers of this product and diamond products basically overlap, and the sales channels also have advantages. Therefore, we have made an "optimistic" assumption of 80% in 2012 and 100% in 2013.
The composite film is expected to have a large room for upward adjustment in the future: the low-to-high grades of the composite sheets are mine pieces, oil sheets and blades. At present, the company cuts in from the lowest-end mine piece. We believe that it is not difficult for the company to increase its volume in the low-end market. It also makes the “optimistic†assumption of 80% in 2012. It is expected that the company's future development towards high-end products is a certain direction. However, it is difficult to estimate quantitatively for the time being, and the assumptions that are not included in the profit forecast are likely to exceed the expected factors in the future.
Earnings Expectations and Valuation: The EPS for 2011~2012 is expected to be 0.44 and 0.80 yuan (Figure 1~2). Corresponding to the closing price of 16.84 yuan on May 26, PE was 38.3 and 21.1 times respectively. Relative to the small and medium-sized board, the GEM average of 22.9 and 20.4 times PE in 2012, the valuation is basically reasonable, and the “recommended†rating is given for the first time. The profit forecast includes the price increase of diamonds, as well as the “optimistic†expectation that composite sheets and prealloyed powders will reach 80% in 2012; there is no expectation of upgrading the composite sheet products and developing products such as diamond products. In the future, there may be more than expected factors in product development, and there may be lower than expected in the price increase of diamonds and the progress of new projects.
Risk warning: The price increase of diamond products may not be realized due to the increase in output of small enterprises.
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