There are indications that in 2011 the country will introduce a “promotional†package policy, which is proposed in the context of the “decrease in surplus†of the country. How will these policies react to the entire machinery industry? Is it similar to the level of repercussions that were triggered when the import incentives were enacted two years ago? For those mechanical sub-sectors with trade deficits, how can they prevent further expansion of the huge deficit while encouraging imports?
The purchase has to buy data shows that although China's import and export trade surplus in 2010 has decreased compared with the previous year, the total amount is still huge, reaching 183.1 billion US dollars. Among them, the total import and export trade surplus of the machinery industry in 2010 was 3.136 billion US dollars, but some major surplus countries corresponded to the surplus, but the surplus of the machinery industry to the US in 2010 reached 18.7 billion US dollars.
Compared with the policy of using discount loans as the core means in 2009, this year's policy adjustment is obviously one step. The reduction of import tariffs, the increase of interest-input investment, and the promotion of import facilitation have been identified as the three directions for this year’s package of “promoting the mouth†policy.
Although the policy of import encouragement this year has taken a step further than two years ago, the industry generally agrees with the purpose of “reducing the surplusâ€. Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, expressed his full understanding of this policy: "Some high-end machine tools, which cannot be done domestically, must be imported from abroad. From this perspective, the import incentive policy has Positive meaning."
Another expert in the domestic electrical and electronic industry also expressed the same view: “The import incentive policy will definitely have emotional stimulation for the machinery industry. And the more incentives, the greater the impact on the machinery industry. But objective Judging from it, China’s foreign exchange reserves are indeed more and there is always a way to find a digestive channel for these dollars."
The expert also said that even though these devices and technologies are not necessarily the most advanced today, they may be equivalent to the level of the 1980s and 1990s, but "as long as these devices and technologies can meet the needs of the current Chinese market, they still need to be purchased. At the same time, the expert also pointed out that buying also has the benefit of buying: "After purchasing these equipments and technologies, it can be self-digested, which will inspire the independent innovation of Chinese enterprises."
Although experts have reached a consensus on the need to “buyâ€, they are worried about whether they can “buy what they wantâ€. Wu Bolin told reporters: "Some countries have strict control over the export of high-end equipment and technology. Even if China reduces import tariffs, it will not be sold to you." Therefore, in this sense: "tariffs The increase or decrease is actually not decisive for buying or selling."
The industry did not reflect much. Perhaps because the industry had two years of adaptation and precipitation for the 2009 national import incentives, when they faced similar policies again in 2011, the response was much more peaceful.
Summarizing the impact of the import incentives on the industry in 2009, Wu Bolin said that there is indeed an impact on domestic high-end CNC machine tools, but it has little impact on the entire machine tool industry. He also said that some machine tool companies that have undergone technological transformation have benefited from this policy, and they have received preferential policies when importing some high-end components.
The aforementioned experts in the electrical and electronic industry said that the import incentives in 2009 did not have much impact on the domestic electrical and electronic industry, mainly because the industry has enhanced its independent innovation capability in the past two years and increased the localization rate of its products. Supercritical and ultra-supercritical thermal power generation equipment, high-power hydropower equipment of more than 700,000 kilowatts, etc., have basically achieved localization, and some products, including complete sets of equipment, have been exported. In the bidding of some major projects in China, such as the Three Gorges Project, due to the implementation of the “bundled bidding†approach, domestic enterprises have gradually learned and mastered the key technologies abroad, laying the foundation for the localization of high-end equipment. Of course, some products in the electrical and electronic industry still need to be imported, such as insulation materials required in high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage equipment, and some special cables for marine, mining and marine applications.
In addition, the experts also reflected that due to the implementation of the Catalogue of Encouragement of Imported Technologies and Products (2009 Edition), the relevant audit procedures are stricter and there are more restrictions. Therefore, the state gives the machinery industry a loan interest subsidy of 5 billion yuan. It has not been used up yet. Whether this has alleviated the impact of the industry to a certain extent, according to expert analysis, there are some reasons.
Behind Peacefulness On the issue of the impact of national import policies on the industry, what makes Wu Berlin more concerned is the implementation effect of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Wu Bolin said that in 2011, the two sides of the strait officially began to implement ECFA. For the machine tool industry, “it is equal to opening the door for Taiwan to sell machine tools to mainland China. It will be a mid-range, medium and small-sized CNC machine tool in China, especially mid-range. CNC machine tool features bring no small impact.†Statistics show that the current market share of Taiwan’s mid-range CNC machine tools in mainland China is 20% to 30%, while the proportion of functional components of the same grade is more than half. .
Once such a share of the market is released, the impact on the Chinese machine tool industry can be imagined. Therefore, Wu Bolin asserts: "The impact of ECFA on China's overall machine tool industry is more harmful than profit."
On the other hand, the implementation of ECFA will enable mainland China machine tool manufacturers to have some capital concessions when purchasing Taiwanese rolling features and rotary tables. But "this is not much money in the province," Wu Berlin analyzed.
Wu Bolin also revealed that according to the latest news learned by the Association from Taiwan, some Taiwanese machine tool companies are seeking Japanese, German and other countries to invest in their factories. Once this is the case, these cooperative products are likely to enjoy the ECFA tariff concessions in the name of Taiwanese products, and drive straight into the Chinese mainland market. This will be the follow-up and deeper impact of ECFA on the Chinese mainland market. Wu Bolin also said that the ongoing negotiations on the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone may have a greater impact on the industry than ECFA.
The problem of deficit should be concerned. The state encourages the import of high-end equipment and technology, which will inevitably affect the independent innovation capability of domestic related enterprises and impact on the localization of high-end equipment in the industry. This point, when the state promulgated the Catalogue of Encouragement of Imported Technologies and Products in 2009, the industry held this view and the response was strong. Although the industry's response this year is much more peaceful, some industry experts still expressed concern. Zheng Guowei, member of the Expert Committee of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the import of machinery industry grew rapidly in 2010. If the country continues to encourage imports, this growth will inevitably continue. According to statistics, in 2010 China's machinery industry imports totaled 255.347 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.14% over the same period, exceeding the level of 2008 (imports 194.83 billion US dollars), a record high. At the same time, from the perspective of various sub-sectors of the machinery industry, its imports also showed an overall growth momentum: the largest growth rate was in the automotive industry, reaching 74.95%; followed by the machine tool industry, which was 66.73%; and the third was in the construction machinery industry, which was 65.93. %.
In addition, if the import is further expanded, the sub-sectors with huge deficits will continue to increase the deficit. Zheng Guowei said that in the domestic machinery sub-sector, the industries of automobiles, instrumentation, machine tools, internal combustion engines, bearings, hydraulic parts and seals belong to the trade deficit of import and export. Among them, the import and export deficits of the first three sub-sectors in 2010 were more than 10 billion US dollars. Although the machine tool industry has achieved rapid growth in total output value in recent years, its deficit has increased. Even though the deficit has decreased in some years, the reduction is still very low. Under the background of "promoting the mouth", how to ease the further expansion of the deficit is worthy of industry attention.
The purchase has to buy data shows that although China's import and export trade surplus in 2010 has decreased compared with the previous year, the total amount is still huge, reaching 183.1 billion US dollars. Among them, the total import and export trade surplus of the machinery industry in 2010 was 3.136 billion US dollars, but some major surplus countries corresponded to the surplus, but the surplus of the machinery industry to the US in 2010 reached 18.7 billion US dollars.
Compared with the policy of using discount loans as the core means in 2009, this year's policy adjustment is obviously one step. The reduction of import tariffs, the increase of interest-input investment, and the promotion of import facilitation have been identified as the three directions for this year’s package of “promoting the mouth†policy.
Although the policy of import encouragement this year has taken a step further than two years ago, the industry generally agrees with the purpose of “reducing the surplusâ€. Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, expressed his full understanding of this policy: "Some high-end machine tools, which cannot be done domestically, must be imported from abroad. From this perspective, the import incentive policy has Positive meaning."
Another expert in the domestic electrical and electronic industry also expressed the same view: “The import incentive policy will definitely have emotional stimulation for the machinery industry. And the more incentives, the greater the impact on the machinery industry. But objective Judging from it, China’s foreign exchange reserves are indeed more and there is always a way to find a digestive channel for these dollars."
The expert also said that even though these devices and technologies are not necessarily the most advanced today, they may be equivalent to the level of the 1980s and 1990s, but "as long as these devices and technologies can meet the needs of the current Chinese market, they still need to be purchased. At the same time, the expert also pointed out that buying also has the benefit of buying: "After purchasing these equipments and technologies, it can be self-digested, which will inspire the independent innovation of Chinese enterprises."
Although experts have reached a consensus on the need to “buyâ€, they are worried about whether they can “buy what they wantâ€. Wu Bolin told reporters: "Some countries have strict control over the export of high-end equipment and technology. Even if China reduces import tariffs, it will not be sold to you." Therefore, in this sense: "tariffs The increase or decrease is actually not decisive for buying or selling."
The industry did not reflect much. Perhaps because the industry had two years of adaptation and precipitation for the 2009 national import incentives, when they faced similar policies again in 2011, the response was much more peaceful.
Summarizing the impact of the import incentives on the industry in 2009, Wu Bolin said that there is indeed an impact on domestic high-end CNC machine tools, but it has little impact on the entire machine tool industry. He also said that some machine tool companies that have undergone technological transformation have benefited from this policy, and they have received preferential policies when importing some high-end components.
The aforementioned experts in the electrical and electronic industry said that the import incentives in 2009 did not have much impact on the domestic electrical and electronic industry, mainly because the industry has enhanced its independent innovation capability in the past two years and increased the localization rate of its products. Supercritical and ultra-supercritical thermal power generation equipment, high-power hydropower equipment of more than 700,000 kilowatts, etc., have basically achieved localization, and some products, including complete sets of equipment, have been exported. In the bidding of some major projects in China, such as the Three Gorges Project, due to the implementation of the “bundled bidding†approach, domestic enterprises have gradually learned and mastered the key technologies abroad, laying the foundation for the localization of high-end equipment. Of course, some products in the electrical and electronic industry still need to be imported, such as insulation materials required in high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage equipment, and some special cables for marine, mining and marine applications.
In addition, the experts also reflected that due to the implementation of the Catalogue of Encouragement of Imported Technologies and Products (2009 Edition), the relevant audit procedures are stricter and there are more restrictions. Therefore, the state gives the machinery industry a loan interest subsidy of 5 billion yuan. It has not been used up yet. Whether this has alleviated the impact of the industry to a certain extent, according to expert analysis, there are some reasons.
Behind Peacefulness On the issue of the impact of national import policies on the industry, what makes Wu Berlin more concerned is the implementation effect of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Wu Bolin said that in 2011, the two sides of the strait officially began to implement ECFA. For the machine tool industry, “it is equal to opening the door for Taiwan to sell machine tools to mainland China. It will be a mid-range, medium and small-sized CNC machine tool in China, especially mid-range. CNC machine tool features bring no small impact.†Statistics show that the current market share of Taiwan’s mid-range CNC machine tools in mainland China is 20% to 30%, while the proportion of functional components of the same grade is more than half. .
Once such a share of the market is released, the impact on the Chinese machine tool industry can be imagined. Therefore, Wu Bolin asserts: "The impact of ECFA on China's overall machine tool industry is more harmful than profit."
On the other hand, the implementation of ECFA will enable mainland China machine tool manufacturers to have some capital concessions when purchasing Taiwanese rolling features and rotary tables. But "this is not much money in the province," Wu Berlin analyzed.
Wu Bolin also revealed that according to the latest news learned by the Association from Taiwan, some Taiwanese machine tool companies are seeking Japanese, German and other countries to invest in their factories. Once this is the case, these cooperative products are likely to enjoy the ECFA tariff concessions in the name of Taiwanese products, and drive straight into the Chinese mainland market. This will be the follow-up and deeper impact of ECFA on the Chinese mainland market. Wu Bolin also said that the ongoing negotiations on the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone may have a greater impact on the industry than ECFA.
The problem of deficit should be concerned. The state encourages the import of high-end equipment and technology, which will inevitably affect the independent innovation capability of domestic related enterprises and impact on the localization of high-end equipment in the industry. This point, when the state promulgated the Catalogue of Encouragement of Imported Technologies and Products in 2009, the industry held this view and the response was strong. Although the industry's response this year is much more peaceful, some industry experts still expressed concern. Zheng Guowei, member of the Expert Committee of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the import of machinery industry grew rapidly in 2010. If the country continues to encourage imports, this growth will inevitably continue. According to statistics, in 2010 China's machinery industry imports totaled 255.347 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.14% over the same period, exceeding the level of 2008 (imports 194.83 billion US dollars), a record high. At the same time, from the perspective of various sub-sectors of the machinery industry, its imports also showed an overall growth momentum: the largest growth rate was in the automotive industry, reaching 74.95%; followed by the machine tool industry, which was 66.73%; and the third was in the construction machinery industry, which was 65.93. %.
In addition, if the import is further expanded, the sub-sectors with huge deficits will continue to increase the deficit. Zheng Guowei said that in the domestic machinery sub-sector, the industries of automobiles, instrumentation, machine tools, internal combustion engines, bearings, hydraulic parts and seals belong to the trade deficit of import and export. Among them, the import and export deficits of the first three sub-sectors in 2010 were more than 10 billion US dollars. Although the machine tool industry has achieved rapid growth in total output value in recent years, its deficit has increased. Even though the deficit has decreased in some years, the reduction is still very low. Under the background of "promoting the mouth", how to ease the further expansion of the deficit is worthy of industry attention.
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