Business News Agency June 27th Bao Yunjun, executive director of the China Energy Research Association: The government has introduced new policies for the polysilicon industry, such as new production and expansion, and it is more like opening the threshold for the approval of polysilicon projects. More investment will enter the industry. This will enable polysilicon manufacturers that have not previously obtained production qualifications to regain opportunities and help promote industrial restructuring.
China's polysilicon innovation industry alliance expert Yan Dayuo: The introduction of this policy has provided conditions for the development of large-scale polysilicon enterprises in China. Controlling high energy consumption and reducing high pollution will become the biggest weight among large-scale enterprises in the future. If Chinese companies want to be invincible in the country and even in the world, the only way out is to give full play to their own scientific and technological innovation forces so that the main energy consumption and material consumption targets of the polysilicon industry will reach the domestic advanced level in the industry or the international advanced level.
Qiu Diming, Deputy General Manager of Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd.: This policy has given rise to a new round of industry reshuffle, because the polysilicon industry has grown very confusing and does need to be regulated. Upstream integration can better meet the needs of the industry. Moreover, as the basic content of the policy has been disclosed at the beginning of the year, companies in the industry have also made corresponding preparations, which may not result in significant fluctuations in the price of polysilicon.
KGI Securities's industry analyst: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the "Polysilicon Industry Access Application Report", which means that the Chinese polysilicon industry's tightening policy is formally established. Based on the fact that the polysilicon industry still has a relatively high profit margin, and China's polysilicon self-sufficiency rate is still low, coupled with China's possible increase in photovoltaic plant targets and other conditions, we believe that this will again trigger a wave of polysilicon investment. Under the premise that domestic manufacturers are gradually mastering low-cost production technologies, we believe that this round of investment will be more rational than last time, but it also means that the era of high profit for polysilicon is about to go.
China Merchants Securities researcher Wang Liusheng: China is estimated to have between 65,000 and 70,000 tons of polysilicon this year, up from 20% over last year. At the same time, overseas polysilicon production capacity is also continuing to increase, such as the United States Hemlock (Hemlock) company's 2012 production capacity will reach 50,000 tons, 14,000 tons higher than in 2010. The current polysilicon price has reached a normal profit track, and the return on investment of various companies will be more stable. However, there is an iron rule that the cost of polysilicon must fall to a reasonable level as soon as possible, which is what market competition needs.
Xiang Zheng Securities Industry analyst Liu Zheng: The review and restart of polysilicon projects will bring the following impact.
First, it is more difficult for new entrants to participate. Compared with the polysilicon investment fever two years ago, the current situation is very different: First, the polysilicon price at that time was above the high level of more than US$100, and currently around US$55, the expected profitability of the project is greatly reduced; Second, many companies did not understand at the time. Polycrystalline silicon has high input and high technical barriers, and there are blind investment phenomena. After the overcapacity debate and the practice of a group of pioneer companies, most companies have realized the difficulty of polysilicon projects. Third, there was no industrial access restriction at the time. This year, the three ministries and commissions have announced the industry access standards, and all of them put forward higher requirements. It is difficult to get approval.
Second, the industry structure has taken shape, and mainstream companies are expected to expand production. In May of this year, Luoyang China Silicon Corporation drafted the "national standard for energy consumption per unit of polysilicon enterprise product" for the second time. LDK LDK, Jiangsu Zhongneng, Sichuan Xinguang, Dongqi Qi, Shaanxi Tianhong, Yichang CSG, Wuxi Zhongcai, Ledian Tianwei and other companies participated in the seminar, representing more than 75% of domestic polysilicon production capacity and output. It can be seen from this that mainstream companies have participated in the formulation of national standards, so we expect that the reported projects will be based on the expansion of such enterprises.
Again, the fall in polysilicon prices was limited and rebounded slightly in the second half of the year. Due to the freezing of the demand market in the first half of the year and the weakness of component prices, the spot price of polysilicon has approached historical lows. Overall, during the year, global supply and demand for polysilicon is basically balanced. There is still about 50% import dependence in China. With the arrival of the installation season in the second half of the year, short-term tensions in demand will likely stimulate a slight rebound in prices.
China's polysilicon innovation industry alliance expert Yan Dayuo: The introduction of this policy has provided conditions for the development of large-scale polysilicon enterprises in China. Controlling high energy consumption and reducing high pollution will become the biggest weight among large-scale enterprises in the future. If Chinese companies want to be invincible in the country and even in the world, the only way out is to give full play to their own scientific and technological innovation forces so that the main energy consumption and material consumption targets of the polysilicon industry will reach the domestic advanced level in the industry or the international advanced level.
Qiu Diming, Deputy General Manager of Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd.: This policy has given rise to a new round of industry reshuffle, because the polysilicon industry has grown very confusing and does need to be regulated. Upstream integration can better meet the needs of the industry. Moreover, as the basic content of the policy has been disclosed at the beginning of the year, companies in the industry have also made corresponding preparations, which may not result in significant fluctuations in the price of polysilicon.
KGI Securities's industry analyst: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the "Polysilicon Industry Access Application Report", which means that the Chinese polysilicon industry's tightening policy is formally established. Based on the fact that the polysilicon industry still has a relatively high profit margin, and China's polysilicon self-sufficiency rate is still low, coupled with China's possible increase in photovoltaic plant targets and other conditions, we believe that this will again trigger a wave of polysilicon investment. Under the premise that domestic manufacturers are gradually mastering low-cost production technologies, we believe that this round of investment will be more rational than last time, but it also means that the era of high profit for polysilicon is about to go.
China Merchants Securities researcher Wang Liusheng: China is estimated to have between 65,000 and 70,000 tons of polysilicon this year, up from 20% over last year. At the same time, overseas polysilicon production capacity is also continuing to increase, such as the United States Hemlock (Hemlock) company's 2012 production capacity will reach 50,000 tons, 14,000 tons higher than in 2010. The current polysilicon price has reached a normal profit track, and the return on investment of various companies will be more stable. However, there is an iron rule that the cost of polysilicon must fall to a reasonable level as soon as possible, which is what market competition needs.
Xiang Zheng Securities Industry analyst Liu Zheng: The review and restart of polysilicon projects will bring the following impact.
First, it is more difficult for new entrants to participate. Compared with the polysilicon investment fever two years ago, the current situation is very different: First, the polysilicon price at that time was above the high level of more than US$100, and currently around US$55, the expected profitability of the project is greatly reduced; Second, many companies did not understand at the time. Polycrystalline silicon has high input and high technical barriers, and there are blind investment phenomena. After the overcapacity debate and the practice of a group of pioneer companies, most companies have realized the difficulty of polysilicon projects. Third, there was no industrial access restriction at the time. This year, the three ministries and commissions have announced the industry access standards, and all of them put forward higher requirements. It is difficult to get approval.
Second, the industry structure has taken shape, and mainstream companies are expected to expand production. In May of this year, Luoyang China Silicon Corporation drafted the "national standard for energy consumption per unit of polysilicon enterprise product" for the second time. LDK LDK, Jiangsu Zhongneng, Sichuan Xinguang, Dongqi Qi, Shaanxi Tianhong, Yichang CSG, Wuxi Zhongcai, Ledian Tianwei and other companies participated in the seminar, representing more than 75% of domestic polysilicon production capacity and output. It can be seen from this that mainstream companies have participated in the formulation of national standards, so we expect that the reported projects will be based on the expansion of such enterprises.
Again, the fall in polysilicon prices was limited and rebounded slightly in the second half of the year. Due to the freezing of the demand market in the first half of the year and the weakness of component prices, the spot price of polysilicon has approached historical lows. Overall, during the year, global supply and demand for polysilicon is basically balanced. There is still about 50% import dependence in China. With the arrival of the installation season in the second half of the year, short-term tensions in demand will likely stimulate a slight rebound in prices.
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