Abstract On December 11th, Beijing Qingqing Wanli, the annual Central Economic Work Conference closed. The meeting pointed out that in 2015, relying on the reform and reform structure, we will unremittingly promote economic development, improve quality and efficiency, and strive to achieve speed control without reducing the potential and quality. So need this...
On December 11th, Beijing Qingqing Wanli, the annual Central Economic Work Conference closed. The meeting pointed out that in 2015, relying on the reform and reform structure, we will unremittingly promote economic development, improve quality and efficiency, and strive to achieve speed control without reducing the potential and quality.
Therefore, the reason for this is that the environmental carrying capacity has reached or approached the upper limit, and it is necessary to promote the formation of a new mode of green low-carbon cycle development; it is necessary to comprehensively resolve overcapacity, and also explore the future direction of industrial development by exerting the role of market mechanism.
The above decision means that the new one-year surplus industry will continue to go to the pace of production capacity, and it is difficult for the price and output to rebound.
Since the beginning of this year, including the downturn of coal, steel and other industries, coal production and sales and consumption, there has been a rare negative growth. In the first 10 months, coal mining and washing industry fell by 45.2%.
Zhou Weifu, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Science of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the economic growth rate in 2015 is expected to continue to slow down, so that industrial growth, especially in the surplus industries, is unlikely to accelerate.
There is no longer a macro-control statement in the new year, which means that in 2015, as in 2014, market regulation will be implemented for surplus industries.
He predicted that China will complete industrialization in recent years, and the capacity of some surplus industries is expected to reach its peak. “In 2015, the demand for some energy and raw materials industries will remain sluggish, and it is difficult to have big growth,†he said.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first 10 months of this year, the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 8.4%, which is a low value for many years. Some of the surplus industries have a relatively low growth rate and the output is also in a downturn.
For example, from January to October, cement, flat glass, pig iron, crude steel, ten non-ferrous metals, and alumina production increased by 2.5%, 3.5%, 0.1%, 2.1%, 6.5%, and 6.6%, respectively.
Excess industries will comprehensively resolve capacity
According to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, in 2015, we must carefully plan to use the great resilience, potential and maneuvering space of the Chinese economy, rely on the reform and restructuring, and unremittingly promote economic development, improve quality and efficiency, and strive to achieve speed control. The amount of quality is better.
Specifically, it is necessary to comprehensively resolve overcapacity and explore the future direction of industrial development by exerting the role of market mechanisms. The reason is that China's current environmental carrying capacity has reached or approached the upper limit, and it is necessary to promote a new way of developing a green and low-carbon cycle.
China's surplus industry has been delineated 10 years ago. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, 10 years ago, steel, electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, coke, calcium carbide, automobile, copper smelting industry overcapacity problems, cement, electricity, coal, textile industry also have overcapacity problems.
In 2013, the State Council's Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity in Production Capacity (Guo Fa [2013] No. 41) proposed that steel, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ships were in excess.
At the end of 2012, China's steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ship capacity utilization rates were only 72%, 73.7%, 71.9%, 73.1%, and 75%, respectively, significantly lower than the international average. The profits of steel, electrolytic aluminum, shipbuilding and other industries have fallen sharply, and enterprises are generally difficult to operate.
However, this year's situation has undergone major changes. This is due to the impact of market demand this year. The production of surplus industries has slowed sharply, the prices of end products have fallen sharply, and the losses have been large. This kind of market-based means to regulate excess industries is expected to continue in 2015, which will make the excess capacity of the industry still accelerate.
Take the steel industry as an example. In the past, when the steel production capacity was four or five tons, it was continuously regulated. As a result, there are now more than 1 billion tons. But now the peak capacity is coming.
Ma Zhongpu, chief consultant of China Steel Spot Network, told reporters that due to the slowdown in economic growth, the steel market price has approached the bottom since the fourth quarter of last year. This forces steel producers to cut production to maintain a balance between supply and demand.
As economic growth continues to slow, domestic steel demand will fall next year. The peak production may come in two or three years. “The current steel industry’s profits have improved slightly, not because steel prices have risen, but because of the low price of iron ore raw materials,†he said.
And this regulation is different from the past, for example, Hebei has to relocate some enterprises. Then, in the process of relocation, the output will decline because the steel mill cannot form production capacity within two or three years. But in the process of relocation, there are also many variables. If the company finds that it is not profitable, it may use the government's relocation subsidy to invest in other industries.
Marketization promotes industrial upgrading
In 2015, the state's measures for the regulation of surplus industries may still rely mainly on the market, which is different from the past regulation by administrative means.
In 2009, the state also approved the 10 million tons project of WISCO Fangchenggang. However, due to the overcapacity factor, it has not been put into production so far.
According to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, in 2015, from the perspective of resource allocation mode and macro-control mode, the marginal effect of comprehensive stimulus policies has been significantly diminished. It is necessary to comprehensively resolve overcapacity and explore the future direction of industrial development by playing the role of market mechanism. We must fully grasp the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand and scientifically carry out macroeconomic regulation and control.
These trend changes indicate that China's economy is evolving to a more advanced stage, a more complex division of labor, and a more rational structure. Economic development has entered a new normal, and it is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth. The mode of economic development is growing from scale to speed. Turning to the intensive growth of quality and efficiency, the economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to adjustment of stocks and deep adjustment of superior and incremental growth. The economic development momentum is shifting from the traditional growth point to the new growth point. Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal, and leading the new normal are the big logic of China's economic development at present and in the future.
Zhou Weifu, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Science of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in the future, the country's past regulation and control methods for the surplus industries are mainly environmental protection, approval, etc., which is no longer the main form. The industry's production capacity is mainly determined by market demand and price.
The advantage of doing this is that the market is more effective. “In the past, there were surplus enterprises in many places, so the losses were also produced because of preferential policies and subsidies. Even if the country does not approve, the locals will produce them, but now the approval power has been decentralized,†he said.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission's new investment catalogue this year, including steel and other fields, the state will no longer approve the project, but hand it over to the local government. This includes the coal industry and so on. These industries are not profitable. For example, the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics show that coal mining and washing industry fell by 45.2% in January-October, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (steel) increased by 6.9%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.8%.
Luo Jianhua, secretary-general of the Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, told reporters that from the current situation, the prices of many surplus industries are sluggish, which is related to the country's efforts to increase structural adjustment. For example, in the coal industry, coal demand is declining because of the country's more hydropower generation and slower heavy industry development.
"If the economy continues to slow down, the demand for coal will still be very low, but whether the peak consumption has arrived, it may still need to be studied. If the water is not rich, the demand for coal may increase," he said.
According to figures from the China Coal Industry Association, China's coal consumption in January-September was about 3.07 billion tons, down about 51 million tons from the same period last year, down 1.6%. According to the National Energy Administration, China's heavy industry electricity consumption increased by 3.7% in the first ten months of this year, which is lower than the 4.3% growth rate of light industrial electricity.
From the perspective of power generation, the installed capacity of hydropower generation in January-October was 257 million kilowatts, up 9.4% year-on-year, and thermal power was 890 million kilowatts, a growth rate of 5.3%, which was lower than 21.7% of nuclear power and 23.8% of wind power.
Stainless Steel Grab Bars,Handicap Grab Bars,Barrier-Free Grab Bar,Shower Grab Rails
Heshan Zhongxin Sanitary Ware Ind., Co., Ltd , https://www.baolongfaucets.com