The US dollar continued to weaken in the international foreign exchange market. Affected by this, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar hit a new high since the exchange rate reform for the second consecutive day. However, the overall market in the long-term market is still unsettled, and the market's expectation for the future appreciation of the renminbi is relatively stable. According to industry analysts, the overseas market expectation of RMB appreciation has weakened recently. Although the RMB may continue to appreciate in the second half of the year, the increase may slow down from the first half of the year. The appreciation is expected to weaken the strong exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. The median price rose by 44 basis points yesterday, marking the second consecutive day of the record high since the exchange rate reform. According to data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4426 yesterday. However, the spot market exchange rate was obviously resisted at the 6.44 integer mark. It opened higher and lower yesterday. Although the transaction price once broke through the 6.44 mark, the spot exchange rate still closed slightly lower by 19 basis points to 6.4433. The recent appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is not unrelated to the weakening of the US dollar. As investors’ concerns about the risk of US debt defaults heat up, the international currency market fell. A foreign-invested foreign exchange trader said that if the US debt ceiling problem can be resolved, it will support the US dollar, but the possibility of a US debt default and credit rating downgrade in the short term may still make the market uneasy. Yesterday, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate and fell, and once fell to a low of nearly three months. As of press time, the US dollar index rose slightly to 73.52 points. Although the middle price has reached a new high since the exchange rate reform, from the domestic forward foreign exchange market and the overseas offshore market price, in the most recent month, the market's expectation of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been significantly cooled. Under the influence of the weakening of overseas short-term RMB, the non-deliverable forward foreign exchange market took the lead in “divingâ€. The spread of the 1-year overseas non-deliverable (NDF) market dropped from around 1000 basis points in mid-June to yesterday. 500 basis points. The appreciation of the RMB 1-year NDF is expected to be only about 1%. The pace of appreciation or slowdown is calculated at the middle price, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 2.28% in the first half of this year. According to the reporter's calculation, the monthly average exchange rate increase in June this year has dropped from May, and the monthly increase has dropped from 304 basis points to 210.10 basis points. For the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the second half of the year, some market analysts believe that although the RMB is still in the channel of appreciation, the pace of appreciation may slow down. "Although the renminbi will appreciate as a whole this year, according to our estimates, the pace of the RMB exchange rate will slow down, and the appreciation is nearing completion. The two-way volatility may increase next year." Liu Dongliang, a foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank, told reporters that from the domestic perspective At present, the domestic economy has continued to slow down, and the trade surplus in the first half of this year has been trendingly narrowed. Inflation has also been limited in the second half of the year, and inflationary pressures will remain high. In addition, from the external environment, the probability of the third round of quantitative easing in the United States is not large in the second half of this year, so the US dollar will not perform too badly in the second half of the year. From the short-term trend, the current focus of the foreign exchange market is still in the US debt crisis. A bank trader told reporters that yesterday's disk showed that although the middle price was strong, the spot market did not follow the middle price, indicating that the market mentality is still cautious. "Only when the US dollar index bottoms out or rebounds strongly, the appreciation of the renminbi will weaken. Given the lack of momentum in the US dollar index in the short term, the pace of RMB appreciation will continue."
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