On Wednesday, Shanghai Aluminum’s major contracts all rebounded, with Al0501, the main contract, opening 110 points higher to open at 15630 in early session. After dropping below the 15550 low, the price began to rise steadily. Above 15750, it was up 180 points from yesterday. In other months, the contract also witnessed an increase of nearly 200 points. LME base metals mostly closed lower on Tuesday, after falling below the low point, the prices of enterprises fell to stabilize. The three-month aluminum also fell on the 16th and tested the support at 1780 US dollars/ton, but the decline was not as large as copper and fell by 5 US dollars. To 1,793. The two-day aluminum futures are mainly influenced by the futures of copper. As the market rumors that the Chinese government will sell a large amount of spot copper led to the fall of Shanghai copper yesterday and Shanghai aluminum fell sharply; and the fundamentals of copper have not changed much, copper Inventories are still low, supply of Chile's El Abra copper mine has been interrupted due to the strike, and the world copper supply is still in a state of tension. In terms of the domestic aluminum fundamentals, despite the country's focus on electrolytic aluminum, the output of electrolytic aluminum continues to grow, and the demand for alumina continues to increase steadily. The Chinese government has changed its previous policy of encouraging exports, and there have been rumors in the industry that China plans to cancel the 8% aluminum export tax rebate on January 1, 2005, while also taxing aluminum exports. This will have a long-term suppressive effect on domestic aluminum prices. Domestic stocks, the Shanghai market A00 aluminum today quoted at, compared with yesterday's rose, the LME market has changed from aluminum premium to premium. The recovery of spot prices played a certain role in supporting the period price. The absence of continued decline in the index also provided strong reasons for the rebound in the metal market futures prices. Technically, from the daily K line chart of Shanghai Aluminum main Al0501, today's price rebound is blocked at the 10-day moving average. The moving average has successfully suppressed the previous rally. If it wants to continue rebounding, it must break through the suppression of the 10-day moving average. The moving average system is still in a bearish state; from the MACD indicator, the DIF and MACD indicators gradually converge, the green bar shortens, and there is a rebound demand in the short term. Market outlook forecast: Shanghai aluminum short-term to maintain the main rebound, but the top of the space is limited, the uncertainty of the domestic policy makes it difficult to change the long-term decline, we recommend investors to long-term short-term thinking.
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