Business Club May 5th Since April, due to the rise in international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have not been raised, and the power shortage in the off-season power supply has brought about a series of chain reactions brought about by the “oil shortage†in continuous fermentation. .
Local refineries with 1/4 refinery capacity have lost profits due to rising crude oil prices, and their production enthusiasm is not high. Production and repairs have been suspended, which has further aggravated the tight supply; the price adjustment mechanism caused by the refined oil price formation mechanism has also caused a serious atmosphere of oyster sauce. The recent shortage of electricity in multiple regions has also exacerbated the tight supply of refined oil, especially diesel.
The decline in price decline profits According to comprehensive calculations by domestic agencies, the crude oil cost in April rose by 800 yuan/ton from the beginning of February. After the price adjustment at the beginning of April, the refinery digested 350 yuan/ton, but there are still 500 yuan/ton. Raw material pressure needs to be digested. After the price adjustment, the refinery is still not profitable after deducting operating costs.
Under such circumstances, the “oil shortage†in the off-season spreads across many regions, and the refined oil market reproduces “patch and zero upside downâ€. According to the data from Shiwang Energy Monitoring, on May 4th, taking the 93th gasoline as an example, the average domestic wholesale price was 9,600 yuan/ton, but the retail price was 9300 yuan/ton, and 300 yuan/ton of “pending upside downâ€. , and the spread has started to expand since mid-April.
Wang Siqiang, deputy director general of the National Energy Administration, said recently that the apparent consumption of refined oil in the first quarter was about 65 million tons, an increase of about 13% year-on-year.
The double-digit growth of refined oil consumption in the first quarter corresponds to the fact that the new refining capacity of domestic refineries has not fully matched the rapid increase in consumption. Li Li, an energy analyst at Xiwang, said that considering various factors, the new investment in refining capacity this year has been less than in the past few years, and the increase in refined oil production has been relatively small. If we look at the local electricity shortage, the shortage of electricity will increase the demand for diesel oil, which will worsen the domestic refined oil market.
Refinery operating rate polarization According to China Merchants Information, China National Petroleum Corporation has planned to stop production and maintenance in July, will stop the production and maintenance of two important refineries in the west, in total will stop producing at least 20 million tons / year of refinery, when the Northwestern region will be substantially chemical resources cut back.
CNPC's overhaul in the midsummer and when market demand is strong, which is objectively unfavorable to the supply of the domestic refined oil market, especially in the western region. Li Li said that maintenance in July and August was a practice in previous years. The scheduled maintenance of PetroChina was not scheduled for maintenance because of oil refining losses, but because refinery overhauls have exacerbated the tight supply of the market.
According to CBI's double-week refinery operating rate survey data, as of April 21, domestic main oil refineries operating in PetroChina and Sinopec rose to 84.8%, and the data generally reached 85%. High rate.
At present, PetroChina and Sinopec's refineries have increased the diesel oil output rate in order to cope with the potential “oil shortageâ€. The outsourcing of sales companies has also been encouraged by the headquarters's outsourcing oil prizes.
However, as of April 30, local refineries started at a rate of less than 40%, a new low this year. Because the two major oil companies can rely on subsidies from other business sectors and guarantee the social responsibilities of their supply, they can use sufficient resources to ensure supply. The local refineries, which mainly rely on imported fuel oil as raw materials, have significantly higher refining costs than the two major oil companies. In the case where the "Piling up and down" has not been eased, local refineries can only choose to "overhaul" the mode of production.
Local refineries with 1/4 refinery capacity have lost profits due to rising crude oil prices, and their production enthusiasm is not high. Production and repairs have been suspended, which has further aggravated the tight supply; the price adjustment mechanism caused by the refined oil price formation mechanism has also caused a serious atmosphere of oyster sauce. The recent shortage of electricity in multiple regions has also exacerbated the tight supply of refined oil, especially diesel.
The decline in price decline profits According to comprehensive calculations by domestic agencies, the crude oil cost in April rose by 800 yuan/ton from the beginning of February. After the price adjustment at the beginning of April, the refinery digested 350 yuan/ton, but there are still 500 yuan/ton. Raw material pressure needs to be digested. After the price adjustment, the refinery is still not profitable after deducting operating costs.
Under such circumstances, the “oil shortage†in the off-season spreads across many regions, and the refined oil market reproduces “patch and zero upside downâ€. According to the data from Shiwang Energy Monitoring, on May 4th, taking the 93th gasoline as an example, the average domestic wholesale price was 9,600 yuan/ton, but the retail price was 9300 yuan/ton, and 300 yuan/ton of “pending upside downâ€. , and the spread has started to expand since mid-April.
Wang Siqiang, deputy director general of the National Energy Administration, said recently that the apparent consumption of refined oil in the first quarter was about 65 million tons, an increase of about 13% year-on-year.
The double-digit growth of refined oil consumption in the first quarter corresponds to the fact that the new refining capacity of domestic refineries has not fully matched the rapid increase in consumption. Li Li, an energy analyst at Xiwang, said that considering various factors, the new investment in refining capacity this year has been less than in the past few years, and the increase in refined oil production has been relatively small. If we look at the local electricity shortage, the shortage of electricity will increase the demand for diesel oil, which will worsen the domestic refined oil market.
Refinery operating rate polarization According to China Merchants Information, China National Petroleum Corporation has planned to stop production and maintenance in July, will stop the production and maintenance of two important refineries in the west, in total will stop producing at least 20 million tons / year of refinery, when the Northwestern region will be substantially chemical resources cut back.
CNPC's overhaul in the midsummer and when market demand is strong, which is objectively unfavorable to the supply of the domestic refined oil market, especially in the western region. Li Li said that maintenance in July and August was a practice in previous years. The scheduled maintenance of PetroChina was not scheduled for maintenance because of oil refining losses, but because refinery overhauls have exacerbated the tight supply of the market.
According to CBI's double-week refinery operating rate survey data, as of April 21, domestic main oil refineries operating in PetroChina and Sinopec rose to 84.8%, and the data generally reached 85%. High rate.
At present, PetroChina and Sinopec's refineries have increased the diesel oil output rate in order to cope with the potential “oil shortageâ€. The outsourcing of sales companies has also been encouraged by the headquarters's outsourcing oil prizes.
However, as of April 30, local refineries started at a rate of less than 40%, a new low this year. Because the two major oil companies can rely on subsidies from other business sectors and guarantee the social responsibilities of their supply, they can use sufficient resources to ensure supply. The local refineries, which mainly rely on imported fuel oil as raw materials, have significantly higher refining costs than the two major oil companies. In the case where the "Piling up and down" has not been eased, local refineries can only choose to "overhaul" the mode of production.
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