According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on May 1, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.9% in April, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Industry experts believe that since the PMI rebounded in March, the PMI did not maintain a rise in April, but fell slightly, once again continuing the decline, reflecting the signs of slowing down in both economic growth and inflationary pressures. The role. An important factor in the price increase continued to slow the decline in the PMI index in April was the significant decline in the new order index. The data showed that the new orders index reflecting domestic demand fell by 1.4 percentage points to 53.8%. The decline was largely due to the slowdown in export orders. The export orders sub-index fell to 51.3% in April and 52.5% in March. At the same time, the data shows that the market price increase momentum continues to show signs of slowing down. After March, the April purchase price index reappeared, with a drop of 2.1 percentage points. The index has now fallen back to 66.2%, falling to a seven-month low. Judging from the PMI sub-indices, the overall situation showed a slight decline. Compared with March, the employee index was flat, the raw material inventory index and the supplier delivery time index increased slightly, and the other indexes fell back to varying degrees. The new order index, new export order index, import index and purchase price index fell. More obvious, the decline is more than 1 percentage point. HSBC's latest data show that HSBC China's manufacturing PMI was 51.8% in April, which was the same as last month, but still below the long-term average of 52.3%. It also shows that the manufacturing production expansion rate is slowing down and the input cost growth slows down. The phenomenon. The austerity policy has already seen results. Experts pointed out that April is often a month with a higher PMI in the past years, and the PMI in April this year showed a downward trend, indicating that the Chinese government has played a role in the series of measures to deal with high inflation. At present, the upward trend in the price of upstream products has been initially controlled, which will help reduce the external pressure of enterprise development. In response to the high inflation rate, since the end of last year, the Chinese government has taken a series of measures to curb soaring prices. For example, in the first four months of this year, the People’s Bank of China raised interest rates several times and raised the deposit and loan benchmark interest rates and bank deposit reserve ratios several times, prompting banks to tighten monetary policy. In an interview with this newspaper, Professor Ding Jianchen from the School of Finance of the University of International Business and Economics pointed out that the cause of the fall in PMI is multifaceted, and government regulation measures are one of the factors that have played a role. Some experts pointed out that due to the earthquake in Japan, the price of commodities (such as cars) has limited room for growth, which has also slowed the import inflation. In response to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in April, Zhang Liqun, a special analyst of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said: “The PMI index fell in April, which was the same as the trend of demand changes. The consumption and export growth in the first quarter both fell. New Export Order Index Falling down may indicate that the port growth rate continues to decrease.†Employment shows a steady growth trend Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the manufacturing PMI reflects that China’s economic growth and inflationary pressures have shown a trend. The slow trend, although the current inflationary pressure is still large, but the inflation pressure in the next one or two months is expected to cross the peak, the pressure is gradually slowing down. Cai Jin also predicted that the “double easing trend†of economic growth slowing down and inflationary pressures slowing down in the economic operation will be a prominent feature of China’s economic development in the second quarter. Some experts pointed out that despite the economic growth, the PMI sub-index shows that China's employment has grown steadily. The employee index for April was 51.8%, which was the same as last month and remained above 50% for two consecutive months. Among the 20 industries, 14 industries are higher than 50%, indicating a steady increase in employment. The Link PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (category indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, right The number is 10%. PMI is one of the internationally accepted macroeconomic monitoring indicator systems and plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. Usually 50% is the cut-off point of economic strength, PMI is higher than 50%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy; below 50%, it reflects the economic recession of the manufacturing industry.
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