Looking at the investment impulse of local government from the perspective of polysilicon

According to the latest statistics from US investment agency MaximGroup, the debt of China's 10 largest PV companies has reached US$17.5 billion, or about RMB11 billion. The entire domestic PV industry is close to the bankruptcy edge, and the possibility of bankruptcy of Jiangxi Saiwei and Suntech will be possible. Most sexual. The current predicament of polysilicon is related to the decline in external demand caused by the financial crisis, and more importantly, the oversupply caused by the blind expansion of domestic production capacity. In fact, all of this was already doomed four years ago. Since July 2008, 35 polysilicon projects in 17 provinces are under construction or ready to start. These projects have a capacity of 120,000 tons, more than twice the global demand. On September 26, 2009, the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repetitive Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry”. When the polysilicon project was included in the overcapacity industry, the polysilicon projects that were on or prepared should have been on the brink. However, even in July 2011, there is still a listed company TBEA "flying against the wind", announced the launch of the polysilicon project. Why are all the places so keen on the polysilicon project, showing a kind of "knowing that there are tigers in the mountains and biased towards the tiger mountain line"? This has a great relationship with the investment in polysilicon projects and the high output value. The annual output of 3,000 tons of polysilicon per line is about 2 billion yuan. According to the price of 600,000 yuan per ton in 2009, 3,000 tons is the output value of 1.8 billion. The pulling of GDP is so much the main reason for the polysilicon projects in various places. Once upon a time, such a large-scale "100 billion photovoltaic industrial park, polysilicon industrial park" as a political performance frequently reported. When the polysilicon project makes a huge contribution to the GDP of each place, whether it will produce benefits, whether it will cause losses, and whether it causes environmental pollution may not be considered. Experts predict that domestic polysilicon enterprises will be in a dilemma. At least half of the 100 billion investment may be "water drifting". Among the current 50 enterprises, only three to seven survive. Today, polysilicon companies are heavily in debt, have a lot of losses, have negative news, and even have bankruptcy signs, and have not heard of anyone who is responsible for the loss of these investments. This is another reason why polysilicon projects can make rapid progress in recent years. At present, in the face of the risk of economic downturn, exports are sluggish, consumption is weak, and local governments have stabilized growth, which has once again produced a “hormonal impulse” of investment. If you don't see it, Hunan Changsha has launched an investment plan with a total investment of 829.2 billion yuan. Guizhou wants to invest 3 trillion yuan to develop tourism in the province. Local big investment is in the ascendant, and it is called the 4 trillion investment version 2.0. If we do not change the assessment mechanism based on GDP and do not implement accountability for decision-making mistakes, tragedies like the polysilicon project will continue to be staged in the future.

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