Iron ore prices are expected to fall hard

It is reported that, although the iron ore port inventory has recently picked up slightly, it is still at the bottom and has remained below 70 million tons for two and a half months.

On the other hand, it is the "high volatility" of steel stocks and steel stocks. According to my steel network statistics, as of April 5, 2013, the five major steel products in major cities across the country had a social inventory of 21.6259 million tons, which was a decrease of 1.42% from the previous week, and fell for the third consecutive week.

In addition, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-March, steel stocks of 80 key steel companies reached 14.51 million tons (at the end of March was 12.85 million tons), an increase of 1.686 million tons, an increase of 12.99%, once again hitting a record high.

Iron ore port inventory is below 70 million tons for two and a half consecutive months According to my steel network survey, as of April 7th, the total inventory of imported ore ports at 30 major ports across the country was 67.96 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. .

Wang Xi, a researcher at the “My Steel Net” Research Center, said that the recent overall inventory of iron ore ports has been low and has remained below 70 million tons for two and a half consecutive months. “In recent weeks, although there has been a slight recovery, Still at the bottom."

It is understood that on March 8 this year, the inventory of imported ore ports hit a low of 66.54 million tons. It is worth mentioning that, on August 24 of last year, the inventory of imported ore ports once hit the 98.85 million tons mark.

Wang Hao analysis believes that the low level of iron ore port stocks, mainly due to the current maintenance of the "low inventory strategy."

“The previous normal inventory of Xinyu Steel was 3 months, now it is about 1 month; the normal inventory of Anshan Iron and Steel Company was maintained for 2 months, and now it is only 1 level.” She pointed out that this mainly reflects the current steel plant The funding situation is not very good.

In addition, the market also hopes to wait for the price of ore to fall so that the bottom will be reduced. "However, there is still a certain risk of such a low inventory. If the market rises, everyone will enter the market, but it may push up the price."

At the same time, she said that from the current point of view, the spot resources put into mines are relatively limited, and the supply volume has also shrunk. The trading price on the spot trading platform is relatively good, and traders are reluctant to push down prices. "It is expected that the probability of deeper ore price adjustments in the near future is not so high. It may fluctuate within a narrow range of around 135 US dollars, and it is unlikely that a large ups and downs will occur."

Steel mills are cutting back on output, and iron ore prices are unlikely to fall. According to reports, as of March 31, among the 29 steel companies that have disclosed annual reports or performance forecasts and express reports in Shanghai and Shenzhen, performance has suffered losses or losses. The company has reached 11 companies, including Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. with a loss of up to 4.157 billion yuan, once again "ranked" list of listed steel companies lost the top spot. The data released by the China Iron and Steel Association also shows that in 2012, 23 of China's 80 steel enterprises fell, an increase of 15 compared with the previous year. The loss of the loss-making enterprises was as high as 28.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.39 times.

However, an industry source said, "In fact, the recent loss of steel mills may not be as bad as the stock market reflects. From the current situation of steel mills, building materials mills have not lost as much. The market is not as you think. terror."

He said, “After the Spring Festival, many steel mills have built new furnaces. As far as I know, there are 7 blast furnaces with more than 2000m3 and 12 blast furnaces with 1080m3, waiting for ignition. In other situations, it can be imagined.”

The above-mentioned sources believe that there will be no significant reduction of steel mills. As long as production is not reduced sharply, it will maintain the strong demand for iron ore. Taking into account the current iron ore port inventory and other factors, it is difficult for iron ore prices to fall.

“The market hopes that the government will eliminate backwards, but even if the measures come out, it will be good to see the results come out in October.”

Gao Bo, chief analyst of Iron and Steel Iron Ore, also believes that the market hopes that iron ore will drop its price. “But there is such low iron ore inventory support. Even if it may not make money, it is very difficult for the price of iron ore to continue. Ore practitioners know the current situation and know that there is a lot of risk accumulation, but they all feel that there is steel support."

He believes that there will be no substantial improvement in terminal demand. “If steel prices don't come, iron ore will not go up. So, now that people are afraid to do inventory, the more they dare not do inventory, the more supply the entire market will have. The iron ore inventory has not been greatly improved, and it will form a strong support for ore prices. This is a big contradiction in the market."

“Don't hope that iron ore will fall sharply.” Gao Bo also said that at present, the capital chain of the steel mills is tense. Many steel mills are saddled with huge debts. Considering capital, steel plants cannot Reduced production, loss of production will bring greater losses.

He thinks, “Now everyone is not afraid of falling. The fear is that the market is going up. Once the price of steel and minerals goes up and the demand is not kept up, many people will be washed again as at the end of last year.