The electrolytic aluminum industry, which is difficult to operate in the first half of the year, is expected to usher in a good life in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a report yesterday that due to the peak season of aluminum consumption, especially the state's suspension of the proposed electrolytic aluminum will reduce the expected output, aluminum prices may rise, and the benefits of aluminum enterprises may increase in the second half of the year. Data show that from January to May, aluminum smelting enterprises (including electrolytic aluminum and alumina) realized a profit of 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, due to the continued low price of electrolytic aluminum and rising costs. This is quite different from the year-on-year growth of 42.4% in the non-ferrous metal industry. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of the year, due to the overcapacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum, it was a net export product. Compared with copper and nickel, which are in short supply in China, the price of electrolytic aluminum continued to run at a lower level, and the price increase was significantly lower than that of other non-ferrous metals. Mainly driven by rising costs. According to preliminary estimates, after the electricity price increase in 15 provinces in China, the electricity price increased by 2 points/kWh on average, and the price of carbon products increased. The manufacturing cost per ton of electrolytic aluminum increased by more than 300 yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that this has led to further reduction of the profit margin of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. At present, enterprises in the central and eastern regions as well as Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other regions have already suffered losses or low profits. Data show that in the first half of the year, electrolytic aluminum production was 8.69 million tons, an increase of 4.4%. From the output of each month, in the case of the resumption of production of the original aluminum enterprises and the steady release of new production capacity, the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to June showed a monthly upward trend. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, due to the arrival of the wet season in the third quarter, the output of aluminum will increase. At the same time, some projects under construction will be put into production, and the output will increase further in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the annual output will reach 18 million tons, an increase of 13%. It is understood that the recent rise in aluminum prices is quite fierce. To this end, some companies have resumed production lines that were closed. Some institutions have released reports that under the strong control of the government, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market may be in short supply for a long time in the next two years. However, some institutions believe that the current demand may be the peak, because the export tax rebate policy in the first half of the year affected the year-on-year increase in electrolytic aluminum exports, resulting in temporary supply shortages. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, it may return to oversupply. . The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reminded that the current transfer situation of electrolytic aluminum to Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. is particularly significant, but lacks planning and management, and disorderly transfer is serious. The capacity withdrawal mechanism in the central and eastern regions is not perfect and lacks supervision, which will further aggravate domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity. excess.
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