The research results of “China's Macroeconomic Quarterly Model†show that if the US economy falls into a “second recession†in 2012, it will have certain impact on China's import and export and employment. However, if the macro policy is properly handled, China's economic growth will still reach 8.24. %, not as severely affected as in 2008. This was learned by the "Economic Information Daily" reporter on August 20th in Singapore, "China's Macroeconomic Quarterly Model (CQMM) 2011 Autumn Forecast Conference". The conference was co-sponsored by the Economic Information Daily, Xiamen University, and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. The weak US economic recovery and the downgrade of sovereign debt ratings triggered a global financial market turmoil in August, and the possibility of the US economy falling into a “secondary recession†increased significantly. Therefore, the research team applied CQMM to simulate the possible impact on the Chinese economy if the US economy falls into a “secondary recessionâ€. The model assumes that the US economy's 2012 GDP growth rate will fall to zero and the economy will fall into a “secondary recessionâ€. At the same time, affected by this, the economic growth rate of the euro zone also fell further to 1.1% in 2012. In response to the external demand shock caused by the “secondary recession†of the US economy, it is assumed that the central bank cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the first quarter of 2012 and kept the growth rate of M 2 at 18% for the whole year of 2012. The model simulation results show that after adding the relevant variables of the “secondary recession†of the US economy compared with the original benchmark forecast, China’s GDP growth rate is expected to decrease by 0.67 percentage points in 2012 to 8.24%; CPI will fall to 3.95%. Below 4% policy goal. However, the "second recession" of the US economy has the biggest impact on China's imports and exports, which will lead to negative growth in net exports. In terms of imports, the growth rate in the four quarters of 2012 was 3.7, 5.5, 4.9, and 3.3 percentage points lower than the baseline forecast, and the annual growth rate of imports fell by 4.3 percentage points. In terms of exports, the growth rate in the four quarters of 2012 was 5.9, 8.8, 9.2, and 7.7 percentage points lower than the baseline forecast, and the annual export growth rate decreased by 7.9 percentage points. The decline in export growth rate greatly exceeded the decline in import growth rate, and net exports will experience negative growth, which is 33 percentage points lower than the baseline forecast. However, as the “second recession†of the US economy weakens the status of the US dollar, it will strengthen the expectation of RMB appreciation, and the net capital inflow will thus expand, resulting in an increase in foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, in the future, while paying attention to the control of capital inflows, it is necessary to manage the use of foreign exchange reserve assets. In this regard, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter interviewed the head of the research team, director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University Li Wenzhao. Li Wenzhao believes that the above model simulation results show that even if the US economy is in a "secondary recession" in 2012, it is unlikely to have a serious impact on the Chinese economy as the 2008 recession. Therefore, China does not need to implement large-scale fiscal stimulus policies to maintain growth. The Task Force recommends that a moderately expanded but prudent monetary policy be adopted. Taking into account the remaining inflationary pressures, monetary policy can slightly increase the growth rate of M2 while reducing interest rates, so that it will maintain 18% in 2012. However, the simulation results show that if the US economy experiences a “secondary recessionâ€, it will severely hit China’s import and export growth and have an adverse impact on employment. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce measures to ensure employment, so as to ensure that laborers overflowing from export-oriented manufacturing can be re-employed. Chen Guangyan, director of the Asian Competitiveness Institute of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and professor of economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, believes that under the backdrop of the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, China’s current export-driven economy is unsustainable, and the way to grow GDP must shift from investment and exports. Domestic consumption is driven to reduce China’s dependence on exports to the United States and Europe. The famous economist Zhang Shuguang believes that the openness of China's economy is already quite high, and the mutual influence and impact of the internal and external economy are also significant. Especially in the international environment of economic recession and debt crisis in Europe and America, the Chinese economy actually encountered a kind of A crisis different from Europe and America. Therefore, re-examining the financial system and financial policies, adjusting the structure, and promoting economic rebalancing are the most important and urgent choices. In addition, the model deduction results show that due to the slow recovery of the external economy, after the domestic macro-control policies return to normal, China's GDP growth will appear at a high level and the price level will slowly decline; if not joined the US economy The relevant variables of the “secondary recessionâ€, given the slow recovery of the US and European economies, GDP will increase by 9.28% in 2011, but the CPI may still be as high as 5.34%; the GDP growth rate in 2012 may slow down to 8.91%, CPI It will also slowly fall back to 4.93%, still above the 4% policy target. However, the possibility of a “hard landing†in the Chinese economy due to austerity policies is very small. The CQMM model is a research project of Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, supported by the Ministry of Education of China, using international advanced mathematical models to calculate China's economic trends. The project is held in Beijing and Singapore each spring and autumn. Forecast report release. This forecast is the eleventh forecast of the CQMM model. The main purpose is to forecast the trend of China's macroeconomic operation in the second half of 2011 and the whole year of 2012, and make a rational evaluation of macroeconomic policies based on model predictions and simulation results. And put forward relevant policy recommendations.
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