Abstract Citi analyst David Wilson said that nickel prices are picking up hopes this year. The macroeconomic impact of the strong US dollar exchange rate and the slowdown of China's economic growth has affected the basic metal market, and the price increase has been blocked. Whether the outside world will relax the nickel ore for the Indonesian government...
Citi analyst David Wilson said that nickel prices are picking up hopes this year. The macroeconomic impact of the strong US dollar exchange rate and the slowdown of China's economic growth has affected the basic metal market, and the price increase has been blocked. There are many speculations about whether the Indonesian government will relax the ban on nickel ore exports. The Indonesian mining minister said that it will not loosen the ban on ore export in the upcoming economic stimulus policy. According to Wilson, this is based on the investment in nickel-based pig iron and refined nickel in Indonesia, which is based on the premise that the nickel export ban will remain unchanged. There are still some factors that hinder the rise in nickel prices. LME stocks are still high. This year China imported a large amount of refined nickel and ferronickel, many of which are foreign nickel, not from LME stocks. Based on China's imports this year, I believe it will wait until 2016 to reduce LME inventory.
In addition, the recent weak nickel price suggests that it is unlikely that orders from the stainless steel industry will change in the short term. A positive factor is that the current price of 65% of the global nickel production capacity is a loss.
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